I spoke with an Amazon AI production engineer who’s talking with prospective clients about implementing AI in our business. When a colleague asked about using generative AI in customer facing chats the engineer said he knows of zero companies who don’t have a human in the loop. All the automatic replies are non-generative “old” tech. Gen AI is just not reliable enough for anyone to stake their reputation on it.
Years ago I was interested in agents that used "old AI" symbolic techniques backed up with classical machine learning. I kept getting hired though by people who were working on pre-transformer neural nets for texts.
Something I knew all along was that you build the system that lets you do it with the human in the loop, collect evaluation and training data [1] and then build a system which can do some of the work and possibly improve the quality of the rest of it.
[1] in that order because for any 'subjective' task you will need to evaluate the symbolic system even if you don't need to train it -- if you need to train the system, on the other hand, you'll still need to eval
Air Canada did this a bit ago, and their AI gave the customer a fake process for submitting claims for some sort of discount on airfare due to bereavement (the flight was for a funeral). The customer sued and Air Canada's defense was that he shouldn't have trusted the Air Canada AI chatbot. Air Canada lost.
Weird deflection. GPT 3, a 175 billion parameter model, came out in 2020, so it very much is not before LLMs. I guess you can say the story happened before ChatGPT by a few weeks. As for putting lost in quotation marks, I have no idea why you think the quantity of money is relevant to the outcome. No one was expecting them to file bankruptcy over this, only to follow the original agreement.
Of course it can but I think the issue is that people may try to jailbreak it or do something funny to get a weird response, then post of x.com against the company. There must be techniques to turn LLMs into a FAQ forwarding bot, but then what's the point of having a LLM
Gen AI can only support people. In our case it scans incoming mails for patterns of order or article numbers, if the customers is already know, etc.
That isn't reliable either, but it supports the person who gets the mail on his desk in the end.
We sometimes get handwritten service protocols and the model we are using is very proficient in reading handwritten notes which you would have difficulties to parse yourself.
It works most of the time, but not often enough that AI could give autogenerated answers.
For service quality reasons we don't want to impose any chatbot or AI on a customer.
Also data protection issues arise if you use most AI services today, so parsing customer contact info is a problem as well. We also rely on service partners to tell the truth about not using any data...
One thing I'll add that isn't touched on here is about context windows. While not "infinite", humans have a very large context window for problems they're specialized in solving. Models can often overcome their context window limitations by having larger and more diverse training sets, but that still isn't really a solution to context windows.
Yes, I get the context window increases over time and that for many purposes it's already sufficient enough, but the current paradigm forces you to compress your personal context into a prompt to produce a meaningful result. In a language as malleable as English, this doesn't feel like engineering so much as it feels like incantations and guessing. We're losing so, so much by skipping determinism.
Humans don't have this fixed split into "context" and "weights", at least not over non-trivial time spans.
For better or worse, everything we see and do ends up modifying our "weights", which is something current LLMs just architecturally can't do since the weights are read-only.
This is why I actually argue that LLMs don't use natural language. Natural language isn't just what's spoken by speakers right now. It's a living thing. Every day in conversation with fellow humans your very own natural language model changes. You'll hear some things for the first time, you'll hear others less, you'll say things that get your point across effectively first time, and you'll say some things that require a second or even third try. All of this is feedback to your model.
All I hear from LLM people is "you're just not using it right" or "it's all in the prompt" etc. That's not natural language. That's no different from programming any computer system.
I've found LLMs to be quite useful for language stuff like "rename this service across my whole Kubernetes cluster". But when it comes to specific things like "sort this API endpoint alphabetically" I find the amount of time to learn to construct an appropriate prompt is the same if I'd have just learnt to program, which I already have done. And then there's the energy used by the LLM to do it's thing which is enormously wasteful.
> All I hear from LLM people is "you're just not using it right" or "it's all in the prompt" etc. That's not natural language. That's no different from programming any computer system.
This right here is the nail on the head. When you use (a) language to ask a computer to return you a response, there's a word for that and it's "programming". You're programming the computer to return data. This is just programming at a higher level, but we've always been increasing the level at which we program. This is just a continuation of that. These systems are not magical, nor will they ever be.
I agree, I'm mostly trying to illustrate how difficult it is to fit our working model of the world into the LLM paradigm. A lot of comments here keep comparing the accuracy of LLMs with humans and I feel that glosses over so much of how different the two are.
Honestly we have no idea what the human split is between "context" and "weights" aside from a superficial understanding that there are long term and short term memories. The long term memory/experience seems a lot closer to context than it is to dynamic weights. We don't suddenly forget how to do a math problem when we pick up an instrument (ie our "weights" don't seem to update as easily and quickly as context does for an LLM).
> humans have a very large context window for problems they're specialized in solving
Do they? I certainly don't. I don't know if it's my memory deficiency, but I frequently hit my "context window" when solving problems of sufficient complexity.
Can you provide some examples of problems where humans have such large context windows?
> Do they? I certainly don't. I don't know if it's my memory deficiency, but I frequently hit my "context window" when solving problems of sufficient complexity.
Human context windows are not linear. They have "holes" in them which are quickly filled with extrapolation that is frequently correct.
It's why you can give a human an entire novel, say "Christine" by Stephen King, then ask them questions about some other novel until their "context window" is filled, then switch to questions about "Christine" and they'll "remember" that they read the book (even if they get some of the details wrong).
> Can you provide some examples of problems where humans have such large context windows?
See above.
The reason is because humans don't just have a "context window", they have a working memory that is also their primary source of information.
IOW, if we change LLMs so that each query modifies the weights (i.e. each query is also another training data-point), then you wouldn't need a context window.
With humans, each new problem effectively retrains the weights to incorporate the new information. With current LLMs the architecture does not allow this.
It's a very large context window, but it is compressed down a lot. I don't know every line of insert your PL of choice's standard library, but I do know a lot of it with many different excerpts from the documentation, relevant experiences where I used this over that, or edge cases/bugs that one might fall into. Add to it all the domain knowledge for the given project, with explicit knowledge of how the clients will use the product, etc, but even stuff like what might your colleague react to to this approach vs another.
And all this can be novelly combined and reasoned with to come up with new stuff to put into the "context window", and it can be dynamically extended at any point (e.g. you recall something similar during a thought train and "bring it into context").
And all this was only the current task-specific window, which lives inside the sum total of your human experience window.
If you're 50 years old, your personality is a product of 50-ish years. Another way to say this is that humans have a very large context window (that can span multiple decades) for solving the problem of presenting a "face" to the world (socializing, which is something humans in general are specifically good at).
Human multi-step workflows tend to have checkpoints where the work is validated before proceeding further, as humans generally aren't 99%+ accurate either.
I'd imagine future agents will include training to design these checks into any output, validating against the checks before proceeding further. They may even include some minor risk assessment beforehand, such as "this aspect is crucial and needs to be 99% correct before proceeding further".
That's what Claude Code does - it constantly stops and asks you whether you want to proceed, including showing you the suggested changes before they're implemented. Helps with avoiding token waste and 'bad' work.
The standard way to use Claude Code is with a constant-cost subscription; one of their standard website accounts. It’s rate-limited but still generous.
You can also use API tokens, yes, but that’s 5-10x more expensive. So I wouldn’t.
> You can also use API tokens, yes, but that’s 5-10x more expensive. So I wouldn’t.
100% agree as someone that uses API tokens. I use it via API tokens only because my work gave me some Anthropic keys and the directive "burn the tokens!" (they want to see us using it and don't give a crap about costs).
This is going to depend on what you're doing with it. I use Claude code for some stuff multiple times a day, and it is an unusual for a session to cost me $0.05. Even the most expensive thing I did ended up costing like $6, and that was a big and intensive workflow.
The size of the code base you are working in also matters. On an old, large code base, the cost does go up, though still not real high. On a new or relatively small code base, it is not unusual for my requests to cost a tenth of a cent. For what I am doing, paying with an API key is much cheaper than a subscription would be
yes, definitely. I've seen comments from people burning through $100s of tokens per day for a $200 per month subscription. Anthropic has just been cracking down and restricted token limits for restrictions, expect more to come, it's just not sustainable
Exactly, if the program has less than 100 units or so of logic then it’s going to be a pretty good time so long as you aren’t working with very obscure/private dependencies.
The problems begin when integrating hundreds of units prompted by different people or when writing for work which is both prolific and secret. The context is too limited even with RAG, one would need to train a model filled with secret information.
So basically non-commercial use is the killer app thus far for Claude code. I am sure there are some business people who are not happy about this.
Lots of applications have to be redesigned around that. My guess is that micro-services architecture will see a renaissance since it plays well with LLMs.
Somebody will still need to have the entire context, i.e. the full end-to-end use case and corresponding cross-service call stack. That's the biggest disadvantage of microservices, in my experience, especially if service boundaries are aligned with team boundaries.
On the other hand, if LLMs are doing the actual service development, that's something software engineers could be doing :)
My AI tool use has been a net positive experience at work. It can take over small tasks when I need a break, clean up or start momentum, and generally provide a good helping hand. But even if it could do my job, the costs pile up really quickly. Claude Code can burn $25/ 1-2 hrs, easily on a large codebase, and that's creeping along at a net positive rate assuming I can keep it on task and provide corrections. If you automate the corrections we are up to $50/hr or some tradeoff of speed, accuracy, and cost.
Same as it's always been.
For agents, that triangle is not very well quanitfied at the moment which makes all these investigations interesting but still risky.
My somewhat cynical 2 cents say, it that these thinking LLMs, that constantly re-prompt themselves in a loop to fix their own mistakes, combined with the 'you don't need RAG, just dump the all code into the 1m token context windows' align well with the 'we charge per token' business model.
One of the ideas i'm playing with is producing several rough drafts of a commit ai-generated at the outset, and then filtering these both manually and with some automations for manual refinements.
_Knowing how way leads to way_, the larger the task, the more chance there is for an early deviation to doom the viability of the solution in total. Thus for even the SOTA right now, agents that can work in parallel to generate several different solutions can reduce your time of manually refactoring the generation. I wrote a little about that process here: https://github.com/sutt/agro/blob/master/docs/case-studies/a...
Re: discounting… Given that OpenAI is burning billions and making trivial revenue in comparison, the cost per token is probably going to skyrocket when Sam runs out of BS to con the next investor. I’m guessing the only way that token cost doesn’t explode is if Claude ends up in Amazon’s hands and OpenAI is Microsoft’s. Then Amazon, Google, and MS can subsidize if they want. But as standalone businesses, they can’t make it at current token prices. IMHO
There are usage limits, but the argument is that unless you're writing and modifying large swathes of code in YOLO mode, you don't hit them. At least for what I would call a small and tedious task. I'm thinking "write a docstring", "add type annotations", "write a single unit test for this case", "fill in this function". For a good prompt these are often solved in <10 interactions. Especially when combined with scoped rules that are pulled in on demand to guide output.
"The real challenge isn't AI capabilities, it's designing tools and feedback systems that agents can actually use effectively." - this part I agree with - I'd been sitting the AI stuff out because I was unclear where I thought the dust would settle or what the market would accept, but recently joined a very small startup focused on building an agent.
I've gone from skeptical to willing to humor to "yeah this is probably right" in about 5 months, basically I believe: if you scope the subject matter very very well, and then focus on the tooling that the model will require to do it's task, you get a high completion rate. There is a reluctance to lean into the non deterministic nature of the models, but actually if you provide really excellent tooling and scope super narrowly, it's generally acceptably good.
This blog post really makes the tooling part seem hard, and, well... it is, but not that hard - we'll see where this all goes, but I remain optimistic.
He didn't say he made 12 independent saleable products, he says he built 12 tools that fill a need at his job and are used in production. They are probably quite simple and do a very specific task as the whole article is telling us that we have to keep it simple to have something useable.
His full time job is building AI systems for others (and the article is a well written promo piece).
If most of these are one-shot deterministic workflows (as opposed of input-llm-tool loop usually meant by the current use of the term "ai agent"), it's not hard to assume you can build, test and deploy one in a month on average.
I also build agents/ai automation for a living. Coding agents or anything open-ended is just a stupid idea. It's best to have human validated checkpoints, small search spaces and very specific questions/prompts (does this email contain an invoice? YES/NO).
Just because we'd love to have fully intelligent, automatic agents, doesn't mean the tech is here. I don't work on anything that generates content (text, images, code). It's just slob and will bite you in the ass in the long run anyhow.
I am also building an agent framework and also used chat coding (not vibe coding) to generate work - I was easily able to save 50% of my time just by asking GPT.
But it generates mistakes like say 1 in 10 times and I do not see it getting fixed unless we drastically change the LLM architecture. In future I am sure we will have much more robust systems if the current hype cycle doesn't ruin its trust with devs.
But the hit is real, I mean I would hire a lot less If i were to hire now as I can clearly see the dev productivity boost.. Learning curve for most of the topics are also drastically reduced as the loss in Google search result quality is now supplemented by LLMs.
But thing I can vouch for is automation and more streamlined workflows. I mean having normal human tasks being augmented by an LLM in a workflow orchestration framework. The LLM can return its confidence % along with the task results and for anything less than ideal confidence % the workflow framework can fall back on a human. But if done correctly with proper testing, guardrails and all, I can see LLM is going to replace human agents in several non-critical tasks within such workflows.
The point is not replacing humans but automating most of the work so the team size would reduce. For e.g. large e-commerce firms have 100s of employees manually verifying product description, images etc, scanning for anything from typos to image mismatch to name a few. I can see LLMs going to do their job in future.
I just left my CTO job for personal reasons. we tried coding agents, agentic coding, LLM-driven coding whatever. the code any of these generate is subpar (a junior would get the PR rejected for what it produces) and you just waste so much time prompting and not thinking. people don't know the code anymore, don't check the code and it's all just gotten very sloppy. so not hiring coders because of AI is a dangerous thing to do and I'd advise heavily against it. your risk just got way higher because of hype. maintainability is out of the window, people don't know the code and there are so many hidden deviations to the spec that it's just not worth it.
the truth is that we stop thinking when we code like that.
You are misunderstanding coding vs logic. Coding is making our logic (which is creativity) fit into someone else's syntax. If a machine is able to translate your logic expressed in your language into running code, whats wrong? Common thats our dream isn't it? Its like you not using calculator because you are worried kids won't learn how to divide. Is assembly language better than C++? Yes - did that prevented high level languages from taking over the world? No.
If done right we all code through spec written in English, not code.
Your comment is tangental at best. You're projecting quite a lot tbh. I'm saying: the stuff it produces is shit and we don't have any connection to the outcome anymore, because our brain goes into "watching TV mode". So the outcome is garbage in any sense.
Not everyone has that opinion. I am not talking about non programmers jumping on the bandwagon but real technologists using it in real world programming [1].
> our brain goes into "watching TV mode"
How many people would have thought the same when calculator came? We can either think like - oh this tool is making kids dumb or you can think like the new tool can make them faster and efficient.
In general I would agree, however the resulting systems of such an approach tend to be "just" expensive workflow systems, which could be done with old tech as well... Where is the real need for anything LLM here?
Extracting structured data from unstructured text comes to mind. We’ve built workflows that we couldn’t before by bridging a non deterministic gap. It’s a business SaaS but the folks using our software seem to be really happy with the result.
you are 100% right. LLMs are perfect for anything that required heuristics. "is that project a good fit for client A given the following specifications ... rate it from 1-10". stuff like that. I use it as a solution for an undefined search space/problem essentially.
it would take months with old tech to create a bot that can check multiple websites for specific data or information? so LLM reduces the time a lot? am I wrong?
Months? Scraping wasn’t a hard problem then. Classifying information is a different and more complex thing, which is what these models are very good at. Then again we had other means of classification before LLMs without having to go through chat bots.
I think classical ML should still be compared when you use an LLM as a classifier. some problems are so well defined you can just drop an SVM on it and be done with it. the biggest benefit of LLMs I think is you can get results that are ok quite fast. no need to split or clean data, compare metrics etc. etc.
Human validation is certainly the most reliable way of introducing checkpoints, but there's others: Running unit tests, doing ad-hoc validations of the entire system etc.
I was one of the early adopters of GitHub Copilot and generally a proponent of AI assisted coding. I've recently tried "vibe coding" and oh my god, the experience couldn't be more different to what I was used to. It feels like a super expensive machine, making all kinds of mistakes and charging me for all of them. So many trial and error attempts. I ask it to do X, it conveniently does a lot of work around it, but in the end X does not work, so it just comments it out as a minor issue. It requires so much micro management, that I don't really see the purpose. Much easier and faster to just write the code myself and let it help me in that process. With agents, I feel like I'm the one helping it get a job done. I honestly can't imagine trusting this with any kind of production process.
You have to compute attention between all pairs of tokens at each step, making the naive implementation O(N^3). This is optimized by caching the previous attention values, so that for each step you only need to compute attention between the new token and all previous ones. That's much better but still O(N^2) to generate a sequence of N tokens.
When inference requires maxing out the memory of a gpu, where are you planning to keep this cache? Unless there is a way to compress the context into a more manageable snapshot, the cloud provider surely won’t keep a gpu idling just for holding a conversation in memory.
Caching would only help to keep the context around, but caching would only be needed if it still ultimately needs to read and process that cached context again.
It that just avoids having to send the full context for follow-up requests, right? My understanding is that caching helps to keep the context around but can't avoid the need to process that context over and over during inference.
What exactly is cached though? Each loop of token inference is effectively a recursive loop that takes in all context plus all previously inferred tokens, right? Are they somehow caching the previously inferred state and able to use that more efficiently than if they just cache the context then run it all through inference again?
Yes, prompt caching helps a lot with the cost. It still adds up if you have some tool outputs with long text. I have found that breaking those out into subtasks makes the overall cost much more reasonable.
This is not remotely true. Think of any business process around your company. 99.9% availability would mean only 1min26 per day allowed for instability/errors/downtime. Surely your human collaborators aren't hitting this SLA. A single coffee break immediately breaks this (per collaborator!).
Business Process Automation via AI doesn't need to be perfect. It simply needs to be sufficiently better than the status quo to pay for itself.
If "the bridge collapses and people die" because the team has a 1min26 "downtime" on a specific day, which is what you are arguing, then you have much bigger problems to solve than the performance of AI agents.
Uptime and reliability are not the same thing. Designing a bridge doesn't require that the engineer be working 99.9% of minutes in a day, but it does require that they be right in 99.9% of the decisions they make.
This comment makes the assumption that the software is cloud based and all that matters is uptime.
I used to work on a backup application, it ran locally on our clients' machines. We had over 10000 clients. A 99.9% reliability would mean that there are 10 of our customers, at any one point, having a problem. It's not a question of uptime. It's a question of data integrity in this case. So 99.9% reliability could even leave us open to, potentially, 10 lawsuits. Also, about 10 support calls per day.
Now we only had about 10k customers at the time. Imagine if it were millions.
An interesting comment I read in another post here is that humans aren't even 99.9% accurate in breathing, as around 1 in 1000 breaths requires coughing or otherwise cleaning the airways.
This is an extraordinary claim, which would require extraordinary evidence to prove. Meanwhile, anyone who spends a few hours with colleagues in a predominantly typing/data entry/data manipulation service (accounting, invoicing, presales, etc.) KNOWS the rate of minor errors is humongous.
The biggest variable though with all this is that agents don't have to one shot everything like a human because no one is going to pay a human to do the work 5 times over to make sure the results are the same each time. At some point that will be trivial for agents to always be checking the work and looking for errors in the process 24/7.
I wouldn't take the claim to mean that humans universally have an attribute called "accuracy" that is uniformly set to the value 99.9%.
The claim is pretty clearly 'can' achieve (humans) vs 'do' achieve (LLM). Therefore one example of a human building a system at 99.9% reliability is sufficient to support the claim. That we can compute and prove reliability is really the point.
For example, the function "return 3" 100% reliably counts the Rs in strawberry. We can see the answer never changes, if it is correct once therefore, it will always be correct because the answer is always the same correct answer. A LLM can't do that, and infamously gave inaccurate results to that problem, not even reaching 80% accuracy.
For the sake of discussion, I'll define reliability to be the product of availability and accuracy and will assume accuracy (the right answer) and availability (able to get any answer) to be independent variables. In my example I held availability at a fixed 100% to illustrate why being able to achieve high accuracy is required for high reliability.
So, two points: humans can achieve 100% accuracy in the systems they build because we can prove correctness and do error checking. Because LLM cannot do 100%, frankly, there is going to be a problem that shows a distinction between max capabilities. While difficult, humans can build highly reliable complex systems. The computer is an example, that all the hardware interfaces together so well and works so often is remarkable.
Second, if every step along a pipeline is 99% reliable, then after 20 steps we are no longer talking about a system that usually works, but one that _rarely_ works. For a 20 step system to work above 50%, it really needs some steps that are effectively at 100%
Currently I'm thinking about how furious the developers get any time Jenkins has any kind of hiccough, even if the solution is just "re-run the workflow" - and that's just network timeouts! I don't want to imagine the tickets if the CI system started spitting out hallucinations...
This may not be about internal business processes. In e-commerce 90 sec can be a lot of revenue lost, and mission-critical applications such as telecommunications or air control, it would be downright a disaster (ever heard of five nines availability)?
Alot of deterministic systems externalize their edge cases to the user. The software design doesn’t fully match the reality of how it gets used. Ai can be far more flexible in the face of dynamic and variable requirements.
Very nice article. The point about mathematical reliability is interesting. I generally agree with it, but humans aren't 100% reliable, or even 99% reliable, so how do we manage to create things like the Linux kernel or the Mars landers without AI? Clearly we have some sort of goal-based self-correction mechanism. I wonder if there's research into AI on that thread?
> Clearly we have some sort of goal-based self-correction mechanism.
Humans can try things, learn, and iterate. LLMs still can't really do the second thing, you can feed back an error message into the prompt but the learning isn't being added to its weights so its knowledge doesn't compound with experience like it does for us.
I think there are still a few theoretical breakthroughs needed for LLMs to achieve AGI and one of them is "active learning" like this.
Additionally, LLMs still don’t truly understand anything, which is why they flounder so badly with e.g. writing code for a programming language or framework that it hasn’t seen a large enough set of training data for. Humans on the other hand do understand and generalize shared knowledge well, which is why we’re much better at handling that type of scenario.
More specific to agents, humans can also figure out how to use tools on the fly (even in the absence of documentation) where LLMs need human-built MCPs. This is also a significant limiting factor.
I’ve found claude to be very helpful when both writing and debugging code written in a language i’m currently building. I just make sure to load the spec into its context first and that seems to be enough for it to get a general understanding.
Everyone criticizing AI for not "understanding" anything... yet, as you found, and many others have also shown before, explain something to them and they bloody well look like they do understand it. I am still in awe at what LLMs can do, TBH. Over the last few months, the main problem with them: of confidently making shit up, seems to be getting much less of a problem... it's still not solved, but if things keep improving I wouldn't be surprised they will have controls that ensure they stop doing that, and when that happens people will be able to trust what they say/write much more... and perhaps that will be a turning point when complaints like in this post will be hard to take seriously.
The issue is that their “understanding” following an explanation is quite shallow. They often miss many connections and underlying principles that a human would grasp right away, needing to be spoon-fed these things to fill the gap.
That’s not to say they’re not useful in their current state. They are. However, I believe it’s becoming clear that there’s a hard ceiling to how capable LLMs in their current form can become and it’s going to take something radically different to break through.
I'm not sure you can do that. As humans, we need to make things up in order to have theories to test. Like back in the day before Einstein when people thought that light traveled through an "aether" whose properties we needed to figure out how to measure, or today when we can't explain the mass imbalance of the universe so we create this concept called "dark matter."
Also, in my experience the problem has been getting worse, or at least not better. I asked Claude 3.7 some time ago how to restore a snapshot to an active database on AWS, and it cheerfully told me to go to the console and press the button. Except there is no button, because AWS docs specifically say you can't restore a snapshot to an active database.
Compounding with learn and iterate, humans also build abstractions which significantly shorten the number of steps required. These are more expressive programming languages, compilers and toolchains. We also build engines, libraries, DSLs and invent appropriate data-structures to simplify the landscape or reuse existing work. Besides abstractions, we build tools like better type systems, error testing and borrow checkers to help eliminate certain classes of errors. Finally, after all is said and done, we still have QA teams and major bugs.
100% and it seems like we need a whole new architecture to get there, because right now training a model takes so much time.
At the risk of making a terrible analogy, right now we're able to "give birth" to these machines after months of training, but once they're born, they can't really learn. Whereas animals learn something new every day, got to sleep, clean up their memories a bit, deleting some, solidifying others, and waking up with an improved understanding of the world.
At scale you need to use more tricks. For example, only inject examples if the tool is going to be needed. Or amass lessons, then ask the LLM to summarize them to prune redundant information before it is used in the context.
Humans build theories of how things work. llms dont. Theories are deterministic and symbolic. Take the turing machine for example as a theory of computation in general, euclidean geometry as a theory for space, and newtonian mechanics as a theory for motion
Even for software applications like the Linux kernel, there would have been a theory in Linus' head - for example of what an operating system is, and how it should work.
A theory gives 100% correct predictions. Although the theory itself may not model the world accurately. Such feedback between the theory, and its application in the world causes iterations to the theory. From newtonian mechanics to relativity etc. From euclidean geometry to geometry of curved spaces etc.
Long story short, the LLM is a long way away from any of this. And to be fair to LLMs, the average human is not creating theories, it takes some genius to create them (newton, turing, etc). The average human is trading memes on social media.
I believe there was an article/paper in the last few months about that exact issue
Someone was saying that with an increasing number of attempts, or increasing context length, LLMs are less and less likely to solve a problem
(I searched for it but can't find it)
That matches my experience -- the corrections in long context can just as easily be anti-corrections, e.g. turning something that works into something that doesn't work
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Actually it might have been this one, but there are probably multiple sources saying the same thing, because it's true:
In this report, we evaluate 18 LLMs, including the state-of-the-art GPT-4.1, Claude 4, Gemini 2.5, and Qwen3 models. Our results reveal that models do not use their context uniformly; instead, their performance grows increasingly unreliable as input length grows.
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As far this question: how do we manage to create things like the Linux kernel or the Mars landers without AI
It's because human intelligence is a totally different thing than LLMs (contrary to what interested people will tell you)
Carmack said there are at least 5 or 6 big breakthroughs left before "AGI", and I think even that is a misleading framing. It's certainly possible that "AGI" will not be reached - there could be hardware bottlenecks, software/algorithmic questions, or other obstacles we haven't thought of
That is, I would not expect AI to create anything like the Linux kernel. The burden of proof is on the people who claim that, not the other way around !!!
I saw your edit with the paper, but when you first mentioned it I thought you might have been referring to the Apple paper that more or less said the same thing.
Speaking of Apple, I just want to get it out there that I'm impressed that they're exhibiting self restraint in this AI era. I know they get bashed for not being "up to speed" with "the rest of the industry," but I believe they're doing this on purpose because they see what slop it is and they'd prefer to scope it down to release something more useful.
We don't generate chains of tokens with a constant error rate so errors don't pile up. Don't ask me what we do instead for I have no clue but whatever it is, it works better than next token prediction.
Hey, maybe humans aren't just like LLMs after all.
Actually, author should be bullish on autonomous agents considering 90% of what he's even able to do now wasn't even possible in early 2024, so you shouldn't bet against the slope of progress
Link does not work for me but as someone who does a lot of work with LLMs I am also betting against agents.
Agents have captivated the minds of groups of people in each large engineering org. I have no idea what their goal is other then they work on “GenAI”. For over a year now they have been working on agents with the promise that the next framework that MSFT or Alphabet publishes will solve their woes. They don’t actually know what they are solving for except everything involves agents.
I have yet to see agents solve anything but for some reason this idea that having an agent that you can send anything and everything will solve all problems for the company. LLMs have a ton of interesting applications but agents have yet to grasp me as interesting, I also don’t understand why so many large companies have focused time around it. They are not going to be cracking the code ahead of a commercial tool or open source project. In the time spent toying around with agents there are a lot of interesting applications that could have built, some of which may be technically an agent but without so much focus and effort on trying to solve for all use cases.
Edit: after rereading my post wanted to clarify that I do think there is a place for tool call chains and the like but so many folks I have talked to first hand are trying to create something that works for everything and anything.
I think in general if everyone is talking about a solution and nobody is talking about problems then it's a sign we're in a bubble.
For me the only problem I have is I find typing slow and laborious. I've always said if I could find a way to type less I would take it. That's why I've been using tab completion and refactoring tools etc for years now. So I'm kind of excited about being able to get my thoughts into the computer more quickly.
But having it think for me? That's not a problem I have. Reading and assimilating information? Again, not a problem I have. Too much of this is about trying to apply a solution where there is no problem.
Maybe you are in a job where it’s not a good use case but there are fields that are handling massive amounts of data or have a huge amount of time waiting for processing data before moving to the next step that I think handing it off to an AI agent to solve then a human puts the pieces together based on its own logic and experiences would work quite nice.
For instance cyber security toolsets like mde capture a lot of data. That data is made meaningless unless someone is looking through it, at my org there isn’t enough manpower to do that, so one solution is using an agent to help characterize that network log data into suspicious or what’s worthy of a human to follow up on.
<< I also don’t understand why so many large companies have focused time around it. They are not going to be cracking the code ahead of a commercial tool or open source project.
I think it is a mix of fomo and the 'upside' potential of being able to minimize ( ideally remove ) the expensive "human component". Note, I am merely trying to portray a specific world model.
<< In the time spent toying around with agents there are a lot of interesting applications that could have built, some of which may be technically an agent but without so much focus and effort on trying to solve for all use cases.
Preaching to the choir man. We just got custom AI tool ( which manages to have all my industry specific restrictions rendering it kinda pointless, low context making it annoying, and slower than normal, because it now has to go through several layers of approval including 'bias' ).
At the same time, committee bickers over minute change to a process that has effectively no impact on anything of value.
>I think it is a mix of fomo and the 'upside' potential of being able to minimize ( ideally remove ) the expensive "human component". Note, I am merely trying to portray a specific world model.
IOW, it's a case of C-suite "monkey see, monkey do" kicked off by management consultants with crap to sell for very high prices...
I have no idea what agents are for, could be my own ignorance.
That said, I have been using LLMs for a while now with great benefit. I did not notice anything missing, and I am not sure what agents bring to the table. Do you know?
You are a manual agent to LLMs when you use things like ChatGPT. You go through a workflow loop when you try to investigate and consult with an LLM. Agents are just trying to automate your workflow against an LLM. It's basically just scripting. Scripting these LLMs is where we all want to go, but the context window length is a limiting factor, as well as inferencing on any notable sized window.
I'll manage my whiney emotions over the term Agents, but you'll have to hold a gun to my head before I embrace "Agentic", which is a thoroughly stupid word. "Scripted workflow" is what it is, but I know there are some true "visionaries" out there ready to call it "Sentient workflow".
Agents, besides tool use, also have memory, can plan work towards a goal, and can, through an iterative process (Reflect - Act), validate if they are on the right track.
If an agent takes a Topic A and goes down a rabbit hole all the way to Topic Z, you'll see that it won't be able to incorporate or backtrack back to Topic A without losing a lot of detail from the trek down to Topic Z. It's a serious limitation right now from the application development side of things, but I'm just reiterating what the article pointed out, which is that you need to work with fewer step workflows that isn't as ambitious as covering all things from A-Z.
Not a disagreement with you but wanted to further clarify.
I do think it’s a step up when done correctly. Thinking of tools like Cursor. Most of my concern and issue comes from the amount of folks I have seen trying to great a system that solves everything. I know in my org people were working on Agents without even a problem they were solving for. They are effectively trying to recreate ChatGPT which to me is a fools errand.
What do agents provide? Asynchronous work output, decoupled from human time.
That’s super valuable in a lot of use cases! Especially because it’s a prerequisite for parallelizing “AI” use (1 human : many AI).
But the key insight from TFA (which I 100% agree with) is that the tyranny of sub-100% reliability compounded across multiple independent steps is brutal.
Practical agent folks should be engineering risk / reliability, instead of happy path.
And there are patterns and approaches to do that (bounded inputs, pre-classification into workable / not-workable, human in the loop), but many teams aren’t looking at the right problem (risk/reliability) and therefore aren’t architecting to those methods.
And there’s fundamentally no way to compose 2 sequential 99% reliable steps into a 99% reliable system with a risk-naive approach.
I updated a svelte component at work, and while i could test it in the browser and see it worked fine, the existing unit test suddenly started failing. I spent about an hour trying to figure out why the results logged in the test didn't match the results in the browser.
I got frustrated, gave in and asked Claude Code, an AI agent. The tool call loop is something like: it reads my code, then looks up the documentation, then proposed a change to the test which i approve, then it re-runs the test, feeds the output back into the AI, re-checks the documentation, and then proposes another change.
It's all quite impressive, or it would be if at one point it didn't randomly say "we fixed it! The first element is now active" -- except it wasn't, Claude thought the first element was element [1], when of course the first element in an array is [0]. The test hadn't even actually passed.
An hour and a few thousand Claude tokens my company paid for and got nothing back for lol.
A friend of mine set up a cron job coupled with the Claude API to process his email inbox every 30 minutes and unsubscribe/archive/delete as necessary. It could also be expanded to draft replies (I forget if his does this) and even send them, if you’re feeling lucky. I’m pretty sure the AI (I’m guessing Claude Code in this case) wrote most or all of the code for the script that does the interaction with the email API.
An example of my own, not agentic or running in a loop, but might be an interesting example of a use case for this stuff: I had a CSV file of old coupon codes I needed to process. Everything would start in limbo, uncategorized. Then I wanted to be able to search for some common substrings and delete them, search for other common substrings and keep them. I described what I wanted to do with Claude 3.7 and it built out a ruby script that gave me an interactive menu of commands like search to select/show all/delete selected/keep selected. It was an awesome little throwaway script that would’ve taken me embarrassingly long to write, or I could’ve done it all by hand in Excel or at the command line with grep and stuff, but I think it would’ve taken longer.
Honestly one of the hard things about using AI for me is remembering to try to use it, or coming up with interesting things to try. Building up that new pattern recognition.
No, the fact Claude couldn't remember that JavaScript is zero-indexed for more than 20 minutes has not left me interested in letting it take on bigger tasks
The tools can be an editor/terminal/dev environment, automatically iterating to testing the changes and refining until a finished product, without a human developer, at least that is what some wish of it.
Oh, okay, I understand it now, especially with the other comment that said Cursor is one. OK, makes sense. Seems like it "just" reduces friction (quite a lot).
Yeah, it's really just a user experience improvement. In particular, it makes AI look a lot better if it can internally retry a bunch of times until it comes up with valid code or whatever, instead of you having to see each error and prompt it to fix it. (Also, sometimes they can do fancy sampling tricks to force the AI to produce a syntactically valid result the first time. Mostly this is just used for simple JSON schemas though.)
Thank you, that is what my initial thought was. I am still doing things the old-fashioned way, thankfully it has worked out for me (and learned a lot in the process), but perhaps this AI agent thing might speed things up a bit. :D Although then I will learn much less.
Cursor is my classic example. I don’t know exactly what tools are defined in their loop but you give the agent some code to write. It may search your code base, it may then search online for third party library docs. Then come back and write some code etc.
That’s a bit reductive and misses the core issue. Of course companies want to reduce headcount or boost productivity, but many are pursuing these initiatives without a clear problem in mind. If the mandate were, say, “we’re building X to reduce customer support staff by 20%,” that would be a different story. Instead, it often feels like solution-first thinking without a clear target.
Edit: not even going to reply to comments below as they continue down a singular path of oh you ought to know what they are trying to do. The only point I was making is orgs are going solution-first without a real problem they are trying to solve and I don’t think that is the right approach.
> “we’re building X to reduce customer support staff by 20%,”
I've never understood the "do X to increase/decrease Y by Z%". I remember working at McDonalds and the managers worked themselves up into a frenzy to increase "sale of McSlurry by 10%". All it meant was that they nagged people more and sold less of something else. It's not like people's stomachs got 10% larger.
The sad part is that companies doing this will very soon figure out that the 20% less staff they "achieved" is only at a cost of 100% increase in development and fees to LLM vendor. Moreover, after a few years these fees will skyrocket because their businesses are now dependent on this technology and unlike people, LLMs are monopolized by just a few robber barons.
That is not a goal that can be shared without alienating the current workforce. So you can bet that goal was clearly stated at CXO level, and is being communicated/translated piece wise as let’s find out how much more productive we can get with AI. You’re going to find out about the goal once you reach it.
That is not to say you should work against your company, but bear in mind this is a goal and you should consider where you can add value outside of general code factory productivity and how for example you can become a force multiplier for the company.
I agree, and would like to hear examples of where this has not been the case. I'm sure they're out there. But pretty much everything has been "how can we use LLMs" and "it doesn't matter if it was a problem that we had that needed to be solved; we need to gain experience now because AI is The Future and we can't be left behind".
Occasionally it works and people stumble across a problem worth solving as they go about applying their solution to everything. But that's not planning or top-down direction. That's not identifying a target in advance.
yes my organization head at my employer has asked us to submit: "Generative AI Agent" proposals for upcoming planning session. Apparently those ideas will get the big seat at the planning table. I've been trying to think of many ideas but they all end up being some sort of workflow automation that was possible without agent stuff.
Agreed with your annoyance at "they are replacing you" comments. like duh. Thats what they've been doing forever.
I think the "math" on reliability-over-steps will end up differently than described here in the long term because getting new factual input from the real world should improve the reliability of the end state, and we have all observed agentic systems at this point producing that behavior at least sometimes (e.g., a test failure prompts claude code to refactor correctly).
Whether or not one term in this equation currently compounds faster is a good question, or under what circumstances, etc., but presenting agentic abilities as always flawed thinking resulting in impossible long term task execution isn't right. Humans are flawed and require long, drawn out multi task thinking to get correct answers, and interacting with and getting feedback from the world outside the mind during a task execution process typically raises the chance of the correct answer being spit out in the end.
I'd agree that the agentic math isn't great at the moment, but if it's possible to reduce hallucinations or raise the strength and frequency effect of real world feedback on the model, you could see this playing out differently perhaps quite soon. There's at least a couple of examples of "we're already there".
> Error rates compound exponentially in multi-step workflows. 95% reliability per step = 36% success over 20 steps. Production needs 99.9%+.
This misses a key feature of agents though. They get feedback from linters, build logs, test runs and even screenshots. And they collect this feedback themselves. This means they can error correct some mistakes along the way.
The math works out differently, depending on how well it can collect automated feedback it is doing what you want.
Correct, I think it is better to see it as multiple stages. Investigation stage might spin off tasks to read files, perform searches online, summarise the request. Then ‘main stage’ where it performs changes. Afterwards indeed the testing+fixing stage where it verifies the results and potentially performs a couple fixes. These plans are predictable and the models learn which steps are relevant first particular projects.
For context, relevant information from steps can be cherrypicked to next stage.
The math works differently because AI (mostly) ignores irrelevant results. So steps actually increase reliability overall.
These are all solvable problems. The issue is given the race to get to a certain ARR quickly, many startups end up not focusing on these. There is some truth to AI agents being not as useful as their promise, but the problems mentioned are engineering problems, and once we start seeing them with a different lens, they would start working. (This is not to say I believe orchestration or multi step agents are a way to go, I personally lean heavily towards RL. Just that the criticisms here assumes the state would remain the same even without AI advancement).
Eg: you need good verifiers (to understand whether a task is done successfully or not). Many tasks have easier verifications than doing the task. YOu have five parallel generations with 80% accuracy, the probablity of getting one right (and a verifier which can pick that) goes to 99.96%. With multi step too, the math changes in a similar manner. It just needs a different approach than how we have built software till date. He even hints at a paradigm with 3-5 discrete step workflow which works superbly well. We need to build more in that way.
> Many tasks have easier verifications than doing the task.
In the software world (like the article is talking about) this is the logic that has ruthlessly cut software QA teams over the years. I think quality has declined as a result.
Verifiers are hard because the possible states of the internal system + of the external world multiply rapidly as you start going up the component chain towards external-facing interfaces.
That coordination is the sort of thing that really looks appealing for LLMs - do all the tedious stuff to mock a dependency, or pre-fill a database, etc - but they have an unfortunate tendency to need to be 100% correct in order for the verification test that depends on them to be worth anything. So you can go further down the rabbit hole, and build verifiers for each of those pre-conditions. This might recurse a few times. Now you end up with the math working against you - if you need 20 things to all be 100%, then even high chances of each individual one starts to degrade cumulatively.
A human generally wouldn't bother with perfect verification of every case, it's too expensive. A human would make some judgement calls of which specific things to test in which ways based on their intimate knowledge of the code. White box testing is far more common than black box testing. Test a bunch of specific internals instead of 100% permutations of every external interface + every possible state of the world.
But if you let enough of the code to solve the task be LLM-generated, you stop being in a position to do white-box testing unless you take the time to internalize all the code the machine wrote for you. Now your time savings have shrunk dramatically. And in the current state of the world, I find myself having to correct it more often then not, further reducing my confidence and taking up more time. In some places you can try to work around this by adjusting your interfaces to match what the LLM predicts, but this isn't universal.
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In the non-software world the situation is even more dire. Often verification is impossible without doing the task. Consider "generate a report on the five most promising gaming startups" - there's no canonical source to reference. Yet these are things people are starting to blindly hand off to machines. If you're an investor doing that to pick companies, you won't even find out if you're wrong until it's too late.
This is not an NxM verifier hell. I explicitly talked about one way which is parallel generation + classifier. You can also use majority voting here. Both would give you the right answer at each step without having to write code or test cases, just a simple prompt. There are more ways to do the same, eg: verifier blocks, layering, backtracking search (end to end assertions and then see which step went wrong), simple generative verifiers with simpler prompts and so on.
For non software world, people use majority voting most of the time.
That’s a common fallacy. I suggest you make a plot of failure rate vs amount of components that can fail, any one of them failing leading to a total failure. You’ll be shocked by how quickly you get terrible numbers.
I talk about it from experience. How else do you think people are training RL agents if not based on verifiers? You don't have to verify every output at every step, you just need enough to course correct the agent and catch early when it's going wrong. That is the exact fallacy I was trying to address. The optimization comes from realizing the critical checks and then what passes to the next step. Requires letting go of the previous thinking and changing paradigms.
The failure rate is high because you view it in series. At test time you need to know what is correct from the options (including nothing correct), you dont need to know why it failed. You can debug later. The challenge is how easily can you return to the right track.
They are not completely independent. It's a good assumption though. If a model encounters something out of distribution then all five of the generations will fail. If the model knows and went in a wrong direction (due to lack of reliability), within five generations, it can be corrected. You need evals, runtime verifiers as basic harness for AI systems.
This is correct. Multiple different agents trying, multiple retries, and many other different solutions can help with this. I have seen agents try one method, get negative feedback, and then try another working method.
> Let's do the math. If each step in an agent workflow has 95% reliability, which is optimistic for current LLMs,then:
5 steps = 77% success rate
10 steps = 59% success rate
20 steps = 36% success rate
Production systems need 99.9%+ reliability.
(End quote)
Isn't this just wrong?
Isn't the author conflating accuracy of LLM output in each step to accuracy of final artifact which is a reproducible deterministic piece of code?
And they're completely missing that a person in the middle is going to intervene at some point to test it and at that point the output artifact's accuracy either goes to 100% or the person running the agent would backtrack.
Either am missing something or this does not seem well thought through.
How is it that the final result is a reproducible deterministic piece of code, when the prompts become the "source code" itself, and the underlying model used is constantly changing (being updated), which is equivalent to your programming language changing its semantics every other day and refusing to tell you exactly what has changed (because they can't). Not to mention the nondeterminism that a lot of times is present due to nondeterministic order of evaluation when parallelizing?
He's not wrong. The numbers are too pessimistic, however when building software the numbers don't need to be as high for a complete disaster to happen. Even if just 1% of the code is bad, it is still very difficult to make this work.
And you mention testing, which certainly can be done. But when you have a large product and the code generator is unreliable (which LLMs always are), then you have to spend most of your time testing.
Did you even finish the article? The end is all about the trade-off of when "a person in the middle is going to intervene".
In fact, the point of the whole article isn't that AI doesn't work; to the contrary, it's that long chains of (20+) actions with no human intervention (which many agentic companies promise) don't work.
1. Multi-turn agents can correct themselves with more steps, so the reductive error cascade thinking here is more wrong than right in my experience
2. The 99.9% production requirement is so contextual and misleading, when the real comparison is often something like "outage", "dead air", "active incident", "nobody on it", "prework before/around human work", "proactive task no one had time for before", etc.
Similar to infra as code, CI, and many other automation processes, there's mountains of work that isn't being done and LLMs can do entirely or large swathes of
How about those large swaths are done with LLMs, but instead of spending all that time reviewing that code (really reviewing it, not just a brief LGTM), which would make the time savings moot, you just decide to personally assume responsibility for that code being dead wrong sometimes and the consequences it causes (you cannot blame the AI. As far as anyone is concerned, you wrote the code and signed off on it). As in, legal liability. Would you take the deal?
No, it is not "mathematically impossible". It is empirically implausible. There is no statement in mathematics that says that agents can not have a 99.999% reliability rate.
Also, if you look at any human process you will realize that none of them have a 100% reliability rate. Yet, even without that we can manufacture e.g. a plane, something which takes millions of steps, each without a 100% success rate.
I actually think the article makes some good points, but especially when you are making good points it is unnecessary to stretch credibility with exaggerating your arguments.
This is a good point, but it seems, empirically, that most parts of a standard passenger airplane have reliability approximating 100% in a predefined time window with proper inspection and maintenance, otherwise passenger transit would be impossible. When the system does start to degrade, e.g. because replacement parts and maintenance becomes unavailable or too costly (cf. the use of imported planes by Russian airlines after the sanctions hit), incidents quickly start piling up.
It's about what you do with errors. If you let them compound they lead to destruction, if instead you inspect, maintain, reinspect, replace, etc. you can manage them.
My point was that something extremely complex, like a plane, works, because the system tries hard to prevent compounding errors.
Valid point, however the promise of AI is that it will be able to manufacture a metaphorical “plane” for each and every prompt user inputs I.e. give 100% overall reliability by using all kinds of techniques (testing, decomposing etc) that intelligence can come up with.
So until these techniques are baked into the model by OpenAI, you have to come up with these ideas yourself.
I just want someone to give me one legit use case where an AI Agent now enables them to do something that couldn’t be done before, and actually makes an impact on overall profit.
>A database query might return 10,000 rows, but the agent only needs to know "query succeeded, 10k results, here are the first 5." Designing these abstractions is an art.
It seems the author never used prompt/workflow optimization techniques.
The alternative is building Functional Intelligence process flows from the ground up on a foundation of established truth?
If 50% of training data is not factually accurate, this needs to be weeded out.
Some industries require a first principles approach, and there are optimal process flows that lead to accurate and predictable results. These need research and implementation by man and machine.
Same experience. I started in mid 2023 building agents. The agents that are still working on production - they do one specific thing and the only coordination/integration I allow is via automation framework based on deterministic api only.
TFA is a bit rambling and readers are getting distracted by specific claims, like the bit about 99.9%+ reliability. TFAs main point is that productive use of AI agents requires tightly specified context and frequent human intervention, which is what folks have been saying for a while.
Llm are great reflections. Issues I have come across too large of context confuse the llm.
Second since llm are non deterministic in nature how do you know if the quality went from 90% to 30% there is no test you can write. What if model provider degrades quality you have no test for it
>Enterprise systems aren't clean APIs waiting for AI agents to orchestrate them. They're legacy systems with quirks, partial failure modes, authentication flows that change without notice, rate limits that vary by time of day, and compliance requirements that don't fit neatly into prompt templates.
Perhaps that's why MCP as a protocol is so interesting to people - MCP servers are a chance at a 'blank slate' in front of the enterprise system. You pull out only the parts you're interested in, you get to define clear boundaries when you build the MCP server, the LLM sees only what you want it to see and you hide the messiness of the enterprise system.
It’s on the wrong layer for that. MCP is akin to putting GraphQL over an old and crufty SOAP interface. There’s some “intelligence” in the GraphQL layer, but it doesn’t fix flaws in the lower layer such as side effects that shouldn’t be there.
It's clear that what we currently call AI is best suited for augmentation not automation. There are a lot of productivity gains available if you're willing to accept that.
> AI is best suited for augmentation not automation.
i agree with this sentiment, but with the caveat of "when its not lying to you".
the most frustrating part of these interactive ai assistants is when it sends me down a rabbit hole of an api that doesn't exist (but looks almost right)
I think that would be one of the success cases described in the article because HITL is an integral part of good customer support chatbots. Support chats can be escalated to a human whenever the agent is unable to provide a satisfactory answer to the user.
The compounding error rate in long-running processes is just one side of the coin. You can also use models to catch errors, and those success rates compound as well. So, it's not like you have no options to fight against a giant failure rate monster...
I still don’t even know what an agent is. Everyone seems to have their own definition. And invariably it’s generic vagaries about architecture, responsibilities of the LLM, sub-agents, comparisons to workflows, etc.
But still not once have I seen an actual agent in the wild doing concrete work.
Technically speaking, Claude Code is an agent, for example. It's just a fancy term for an LLM that can call tools in a loop until it thinks it's done with whatever it was tasked to do.
ChatGPT's Deep Research mode is also an agent: it will keep crawling the web and refining things until it feels it has enough material to write a good response.
Not OP, but I've been thinking about this and concluded it's not quite so clear-cut. If I was going to go down this path, I think I would bet on competitors, rather than against incumbents.
My thinking: In a financial system collapse (a la The Big Short), the assets under analysis are themselves the things of value. Whereas betting on AI to collapse a technology business is at least one step removed from actual valuation, even assuming:
1. AI Agents do deliver just enough, and stay around long enough, for big corporations to lay off large number of employees
2. After doing so, AI quickly becomes prohibitively expensive for the business
3. The combination of the above factors tank business productivity
In the event of a perfect black swan, the trouble is that it's not actually clear that this combination of factors would result in concrete valuation drops. The business just "doesn't ship as much" or "ships more slowly". This is bad, but it's only really bad if you have competitors that can genuinely capitalise on that stall.
An example immediately on-hand: for non-AI reasons, the latest rumors are that Apple's next round of Macbook Pros will be delayed. This sucks. But isn't particularly damaging to the company's stock price because there isn't really a competitor in the market that can capitalise on that delay in a meaningful way.
Similarly, I couldn't really tell you what the most recent non-AI software features shipped by Netflix or Facebook or X actually were. How would I know if they're struggling internally and have stopped shipping features because AI is too expensive and all their devs were laid off?
I guess if you're looking for a severe black swan to bet against AI Agents in general, you'd need to find a company that was so entrenched and so completely committed to and dependent on AI that they could not financially survive a shock like that AND they're in a space where competitors will immediately seize advantage.
Don't get me wrong though, even if there's no opportunity to actually bet against that situation, it will still suck for literally everyone if it eventuates.
It’s tricky to predict how AI impacts business value directly. You might want to check out MailsAI for insights on how companies adjust their strategies in uncertain times. It helped me see the bigger picture without getting lost in assumptions.
If you want to bet on a competitor, let's talk cause I'm your guy. While everyone else was looking the other way, I stole home: https://github.com/bablr-lang
shorting only works if people realise it when you do. c-suite will run out of make up before admitting its a pig because the pay off is huge for them. I reckon agentic dev can function "just enough" to allow them to delay the reality for a bit while they fire more of their engineering team.
I don't think this one is worth shorting because there's no specific event to trigger the mindshare to start moving and validating your position. You'd have to wait for very big public failures before the herd start to move.
While true, the world doesn't end in 2025. While I would also agree that big financial benefits from agents to companies appear unlikely to arrive this year (and the title specifically mentions 2025) I would bet on agents becoming a disruptive technology in the next 5-10 years. My 2c.
Just empirical observations. It takes time to propagate technology down to general businesses and business methods up to technology developers. The "propagate down to business methods" is the slower path, as it requires business leaders to become familiar enough with technology to get ideas on how to leverage it.
This is not a new observation -- Clark's note on overestimating short term and underestimating long term impact of technology is one of my favorite patterns. My 2c.
This is what I try to explain to people who ask "If LLMs are so good why haven't they replaced workers?". Well it takes a long time for the railroads to be built. What use is a locomotive without rails?
Claude Code is impressive but it still produces quite a bit of garbage in my experience, and coding agents are likely to be the best agents around for the foreseeable future.
Shorting is rarely worth it without detailed information, because you also have to get the timing right. If you short AI now but it crashes in two years, chances are good that you lost a lot of money.
I think it's just written by someone who reads a lot of LLM output - lots of lists with bolded prefixes. Maybe there was some AI-assistance (or a lot), but I didn't get the impression that it was AI-generated as a whole.
The thing that sucks about it is maybe his english is bad (not his native language) so he relies on LLM output for his posts. Im inclined to cut people slack for this. But the rub is that it is indistinguishable from spam/slop generated for marketing/ads/whatever.
Or it's possible that he is one of those people that _realy_ adopted LLMs into _all_ their workflow, I guess, and he thinks the output is good enough as is, because it captured his general points?
LLMs have certainly damaged trust in general internet reading now, that's for sure.
I don't know why you do. I found the article interesting, derived value from it. I don't care if it's an LLM or a human that gave me the value. I don't see why it should matter.
It matters to me for so many reasons that I can't go over them all here. Maybe we have different priorities, and that's fine.
One reason why LLM generated text bothers me is because there's no conscious, coherent mind behind it. There's no communicative intent because language models are inherently incapable of it. When I read a blog post, I subconsciously create a mental model of the author, deduce what kind of common ground we might have and use this understanding to interpret the text. When I learn that an LLM generated a text I've read, that mental model shatters and I feel like I was lied to. It was just a machine pretending to be a human, and my time and attention could've been used to read something written by a living being.
I read blogs to learn about the thoughts of other humans. If I wanted to know what an LLM thought about the state of vibe coding, I could just ask one at any time.
> AI tools aren't perfect yet. They sometimes make mistakes, and they can't always understand what you are trying to do. But they're getting better all the time, In the future, they will be more powerful and helpful. They'll be able to understand your code even better, and they'll be able to generate even more creative ideas.
I’m at this stage where I’m fine with AI generated content. Sure, the verbosity sucks - but there’s an interesting idea here, but make it clear that you’ve used AI, and show your prompts.
I’m sure most of the problems cited in this article will be easily solved within the next five years or so, waiting for perfection and doing nothing won’t pay dividends
Is the main point “let me mathematically prove that it’s impossible to do what I’ve already done 12 times this year?”
Yes, very long workflows with no checks in between will have high error rates. This is true of human workflows too (which also have <100% accuracy at each step). Workflows rarely have this many steps in practice and you can add review points to combat the problem (as evidenced by the author building 12 of these things and not running into this problem)
I spoke with an Amazon AI production engineer who’s talking with prospective clients about implementing AI in our business. When a colleague asked about using generative AI in customer facing chats the engineer said he knows of zero companies who don’t have a human in the loop. All the automatic replies are non-generative “old” tech. Gen AI is just not reliable enough for anyone to stake their reputation on it.
Years ago I was interested in agents that used "old AI" symbolic techniques backed up with classical machine learning. I kept getting hired though by people who were working on pre-transformer neural nets for texts.
Something I knew all along was that you build the system that lets you do it with the human in the loop, collect evaluation and training data [1] and then build a system which can do some of the work and possibly improve the quality of the rest of it.
[1] in that order because for any 'subjective' task you will need to evaluate the symbolic system even if you don't need to train it -- if you need to train the system, on the other hand, you'll still need to eval
Plenty of tech companies have started using gen AI for live chat support. Off the top of head I know off sonder.com and wealthsimple.com.
If the LLM can’t answer a query it usually forwards the chat to a human support agent.
Air Canada did this a bit ago, and their AI gave the customer a fake process for submitting claims for some sort of discount on airfare due to bereavement (the flight was for a funeral). The customer sued and Air Canada's defense was that he shouldn't have trusted the Air Canada AI chatbot. Air Canada lost.
That was in 2022, before LLMs, and they "lost" as in they had to pay back $482 USD.
Weird deflection. GPT 3, a 175 billion parameter model, came out in 2020, so it very much is not before LLMs. I guess you can say the story happened before ChatGPT by a few weeks. As for putting lost in quotation marks, I have no idea why you think the quantity of money is relevant to the outcome. No one was expecting them to file bankruptcy over this, only to follow the original agreement.
Of course it can but I think the issue is that people may try to jailbreak it or do something funny to get a weird response, then post of x.com against the company. There must be techniques to turn LLMs into a FAQ forwarding bot, but then what's the point of having a LLM
That is for selling support. A drone for a consumer drone. Nothing more than a little more sophisticated advertising banner.
This is not being part of a defined workflow that requires structured output.
Perhaps. But it’s telling that someone whose job is selling those kinds of services wasn’t aware of any personally.
"This tech works fine as long as you have a back up for when it frequently fails"
Gen AI can only support people. In our case it scans incoming mails for patterns of order or article numbers, if the customers is already know, etc.
That isn't reliable either, but it supports the person who gets the mail on his desk in the end.
We sometimes get handwritten service protocols and the model we are using is very proficient in reading handwritten notes which you would have difficulties to parse yourself.
It works most of the time, but not often enough that AI could give autogenerated answers. For service quality reasons we don't want to impose any chatbot or AI on a customer.
Also data protection issues arise if you use most AI services today, so parsing customer contact info is a problem as well. We also rely on service partners to tell the truth about not using any data...
One thing I'll add that isn't touched on here is about context windows. While not "infinite", humans have a very large context window for problems they're specialized in solving. Models can often overcome their context window limitations by having larger and more diverse training sets, but that still isn't really a solution to context windows.
Yes, I get the context window increases over time and that for many purposes it's already sufficient enough, but the current paradigm forces you to compress your personal context into a prompt to produce a meaningful result. In a language as malleable as English, this doesn't feel like engineering so much as it feels like incantations and guessing. We're losing so, so much by skipping determinism.
Humans don't have this fixed split into "context" and "weights", at least not over non-trivial time spans.
For better or worse, everything we see and do ends up modifying our "weights", which is something current LLMs just architecturally can't do since the weights are read-only.
This is why I actually argue that LLMs don't use natural language. Natural language isn't just what's spoken by speakers right now. It's a living thing. Every day in conversation with fellow humans your very own natural language model changes. You'll hear some things for the first time, you'll hear others less, you'll say things that get your point across effectively first time, and you'll say some things that require a second or even third try. All of this is feedback to your model.
All I hear from LLM people is "you're just not using it right" or "it's all in the prompt" etc. That's not natural language. That's no different from programming any computer system.
I've found LLMs to be quite useful for language stuff like "rename this service across my whole Kubernetes cluster". But when it comes to specific things like "sort this API endpoint alphabetically" I find the amount of time to learn to construct an appropriate prompt is the same if I'd have just learnt to program, which I already have done. And then there's the energy used by the LLM to do it's thing which is enormously wasteful.
> All I hear from LLM people is "you're just not using it right" or "it's all in the prompt" etc. That's not natural language. That's no different from programming any computer system.
This right here is the nail on the head. When you use (a) language to ask a computer to return you a response, there's a word for that and it's "programming". You're programming the computer to return data. This is just programming at a higher level, but we've always been increasing the level at which we program. This is just a continuation of that. These systems are not magical, nor will they ever be.
I agree, I'm mostly trying to illustrate how difficult it is to fit our working model of the world into the LLM paradigm. A lot of comments here keep comparing the accuracy of LLMs with humans and I feel that glosses over so much of how different the two are.
Honestly we have no idea what the human split is between "context" and "weights" aside from a superficial understanding that there are long term and short term memories. The long term memory/experience seems a lot closer to context than it is to dynamic weights. We don't suddenly forget how to do a math problem when we pick up an instrument (ie our "weights" don't seem to update as easily and quickly as context does for an LLM).
> humans have a very large context window for problems they're specialized in solving
Do they? I certainly don't. I don't know if it's my memory deficiency, but I frequently hit my "context window" when solving problems of sufficient complexity.
Can you provide some examples of problems where humans have such large context windows?
> Do they? I certainly don't. I don't know if it's my memory deficiency, but I frequently hit my "context window" when solving problems of sufficient complexity.
Human context windows are not linear. They have "holes" in them which are quickly filled with extrapolation that is frequently correct.
It's why you can give a human an entire novel, say "Christine" by Stephen King, then ask them questions about some other novel until their "context window" is filled, then switch to questions about "Christine" and they'll "remember" that they read the book (even if they get some of the details wrong).
> Can you provide some examples of problems where humans have such large context windows?
See above.
The reason is because humans don't just have a "context window", they have a working memory that is also their primary source of information.
IOW, if we change LLMs so that each query modifies the weights (i.e. each query is also another training data-point), then you wouldn't need a context window.
With humans, each new problem effectively retrains the weights to incorporate the new information. With current LLMs the architecture does not allow this.
It's a very large context window, but it is compressed down a lot. I don't know every line of insert your PL of choice's standard library, but I do know a lot of it with many different excerpts from the documentation, relevant experiences where I used this over that, or edge cases/bugs that one might fall into. Add to it all the domain knowledge for the given project, with explicit knowledge of how the clients will use the product, etc, but even stuff like what might your colleague react to to this approach vs another.
And all this can be novelly combined and reasoned with to come up with new stuff to put into the "context window", and it can be dynamically extended at any point (e.g. you recall something similar during a thought train and "bring it into context").
And all this was only the current task-specific window, which lives inside the sum total of your human experience window.
If you're 50 years old, your personality is a product of 50-ish years. Another way to say this is that humans have a very large context window (that can span multiple decades) for solving the problem of presenting a "face" to the world (socializing, which is something humans in general are specifically good at).
Human multi-step workflows tend to have checkpoints where the work is validated before proceeding further, as humans generally aren't 99%+ accurate either.
I'd imagine future agents will include training to design these checks into any output, validating against the checks before proceeding further. They may even include some minor risk assessment beforehand, such as "this aspect is crucial and needs to be 99% correct before proceeding further".
That's what Claude Code does - it constantly stops and asks you whether you want to proceed, including showing you the suggested changes before they're implemented. Helps with avoiding token waste and 'bad' work.
Except when it decides it doesn’t need to do that anymore or forgets
thats good to hear, theyre on their way there!
on a personal note, I'm happy to hear that. I've been apprehensive and haven't tried it, purely due to my fear of the cost.
The standard way to use Claude Code is with a constant-cost subscription; one of their standard website accounts. It’s rate-limited but still generous.
You can also use API tokens, yes, but that’s 5-10x more expensive. So I wouldn’t.
> You can also use API tokens, yes, but that’s 5-10x more expensive. So I wouldn’t.
100% agree as someone that uses API tokens. I use it via API tokens only because my work gave me some Anthropic keys and the directive "burn the tokens!" (they want to see us using it and don't give a crap about costs).
This is going to depend on what you're doing with it. I use Claude code for some stuff multiple times a day, and it is an unusual for a session to cost me $0.05. Even the most expensive thing I did ended up costing like $6, and that was a big and intensive workflow.
The size of the code base you are working in also matters. On an old, large code base, the cost does go up, though still not real high. On a new or relatively small code base, it is not unusual for my requests to cost a tenth of a cent. For what I am doing, paying with an API key is much cheaper than a subscription would be
If API tokens are 10x more expensive doesn’t that imply that the constant-cost subscription is massively subsidized?
Relies on many of the subscribers underusing their quota?
yes, definitely. I've seen comments from people burning through $100s of tokens per day for a $200 per month subscription. Anthropic has just been cracking down and restricted token limits for restrictions, expect more to come, it's just not sustainable
https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/17/anthropic-tightens-usage-l...
Or the markup they apply to the price per token pricing is extremely large.
Yeah, it probably is. I'll use it while it's there.
My work has a corporate subscription and on the one hand it's very impressive and on the other i don't actually find it useful.
It’s best at small to medium projects written in a consistent style.
So. It’s a potential superpower for personal projects, yet I don’t see it being very useful in a corporate setting.
I used Claude Code to make this little thing: https://github.com/Baughn/ScriptView
…took me thirty minutes. It wouldn’t have existed otherwise.
Exactly, if the program has less than 100 units or so of logic then it’s going to be a pretty good time so long as you aren’t working with very obscure/private dependencies.
The problems begin when integrating hundreds of units prompted by different people or when writing for work which is both prolific and secret. The context is too limited even with RAG, one would need to train a model filled with secret information.
So basically non-commercial use is the killer app thus far for Claude code. I am sure there are some business people who are not happy about this.
Lots of applications have to be redesigned around that. My guess is that micro-services architecture will see a renaissance since it plays well with LLMs.
Somebody will still need to have the entire context, i.e. the full end-to-end use case and corresponding cross-service call stack. That's the biggest disadvantage of microservices, in my experience, especially if service boundaries are aligned with team boundaries.
On the other hand, if LLMs are doing the actual service development, that's something software engineers could be doing :)
My AI tool use has been a net positive experience at work. It can take over small tasks when I need a break, clean up or start momentum, and generally provide a good helping hand. But even if it could do my job, the costs pile up really quickly. Claude Code can burn $25/ 1-2 hrs, easily on a large codebase, and that's creeping along at a net positive rate assuming I can keep it on task and provide corrections. If you automate the corrections we are up to $50/hr or some tradeoff of speed, accuracy, and cost.
Same as it's always been.
For agents, that triangle is not very well quanitfied at the moment which makes all these investigations interesting but still risky.
My somewhat cynical 2 cents say, it that these thinking LLMs, that constantly re-prompt themselves in a loop to fix their own mistakes, combined with the 'you don't need RAG, just dump the all code into the 1m token context windows' align well with the 'we charge per token' business model.
One of the ideas i'm playing with is producing several rough drafts of a commit ai-generated at the outset, and then filtering these both manually and with some automations for manual refinements.
_Knowing how way leads to way_, the larger the task, the more chance there is for an early deviation to doom the viability of the solution in total. Thus for even the SOTA right now, agents that can work in parallel to generate several different solutions can reduce your time of manually refactoring the generation. I wrote a little about that process here: https://github.com/sutt/agro/blob/master/docs/case-studies/a...
Subscription?
I have one, and upgrades don't have unlimited access as far as I can tell. Correct me if I'm wrong.
This cost scaling will be an issue for this whole AI employee thing, especially because I imagine these providers are heavily discounting.
Re: discounting… Given that OpenAI is burning billions and making trivial revenue in comparison, the cost per token is probably going to skyrocket when Sam runs out of BS to con the next investor. I’m guessing the only way that token cost doesn’t explode is if Claude ends up in Amazon’s hands and OpenAI is Microsoft’s. Then Amazon, Google, and MS can subsidize if they want. But as standalone businesses, they can’t make it at current token prices. IMHO
There are usage limits, but the argument is that unless you're writing and modifying large swathes of code in YOLO mode, you don't hit them. At least for what I would call a small and tedious task. I'm thinking "write a docstring", "add type annotations", "write a single unit test for this case", "fill in this function". For a good prompt these are often solved in <10 interactions. Especially when combined with scoped rules that are pulled in on demand to guide output.
"The real challenge isn't AI capabilities, it's designing tools and feedback systems that agents can actually use effectively." - this part I agree with - I'd been sitting the AI stuff out because I was unclear where I thought the dust would settle or what the market would accept, but recently joined a very small startup focused on building an agent.
I've gone from skeptical to willing to humor to "yeah this is probably right" in about 5 months, basically I believe: if you scope the subject matter very very well, and then focus on the tooling that the model will require to do it's task, you get a high completion rate. There is a reluctance to lean into the non deterministic nature of the models, but actually if you provide really excellent tooling and scope super narrowly, it's generally acceptably good.
This blog post really makes the tooling part seem hard, and, well... it is, but not that hard - we'll see where this all goes, but I remain optimistic.
> I've built 12+ production AI agent systems across development, DevOps, and data operations
It's hard to make *one* good product (see startup failure rates). You couldn't make 12 (as seemingly a solo dev?) and you're surprised?
we've been working on Definite[0] for 2 years with a small team and it only started getting really good in the past 6 months.
0 - data stack + AI agent: https://www.definite.app/
He didn't say he made 12 independent saleable products, he says he built 12 tools that fill a need at his job and are used in production. They are probably quite simple and do a very specific task as the whole article is telling us that we have to keep it simple to have something useable.
that's my point. He's "Betting Against AI Agents" without having taken a serious attempt at building one.
> agents that technically make successful API calls but can't actually accomplish complex workflows because they don't understand what happened.
It takes a long time to get these things right.
They've built 12+ products with a full time job for the last 3 years
Something seems off about that...
His full time job is building AI systems for others (and the article is a well written promo piece).
If most of these are one-shot deterministic workflows (as opposed of input-llm-tool loop usually meant by the current use of the term "ai agent"), it's not hard to assume you can build, test and deploy one in a month on average.
I also build agents/ai automation for a living. Coding agents or anything open-ended is just a stupid idea. It's best to have human validated checkpoints, small search spaces and very specific questions/prompts (does this email contain an invoice? YES/NO).
Just because we'd love to have fully intelligent, automatic agents, doesn't mean the tech is here. I don't work on anything that generates content (text, images, code). It's just slob and will bite you in the ass in the long run anyhow.
I am also building an agent framework and also used chat coding (not vibe coding) to generate work - I was easily able to save 50% of my time just by asking GPT.
But it generates mistakes like say 1 in 10 times and I do not see it getting fixed unless we drastically change the LLM architecture. In future I am sure we will have much more robust systems if the current hype cycle doesn't ruin its trust with devs.
But the hit is real, I mean I would hire a lot less If i were to hire now as I can clearly see the dev productivity boost.. Learning curve for most of the topics are also drastically reduced as the loss in Google search result quality is now supplemented by LLMs.
But thing I can vouch for is automation and more streamlined workflows. I mean having normal human tasks being augmented by an LLM in a workflow orchestration framework. The LLM can return its confidence % along with the task results and for anything less than ideal confidence % the workflow framework can fall back on a human. But if done correctly with proper testing, guardrails and all, I can see LLM is going to replace human agents in several non-critical tasks within such workflows.
The point is not replacing humans but automating most of the work so the team size would reduce. For e.g. large e-commerce firms have 100s of employees manually verifying product description, images etc, scanning for anything from typos to image mismatch to name a few. I can see LLMs going to do their job in future.
I just left my CTO job for personal reasons. we tried coding agents, agentic coding, LLM-driven coding whatever. the code any of these generate is subpar (a junior would get the PR rejected for what it produces) and you just waste so much time prompting and not thinking. people don't know the code anymore, don't check the code and it's all just gotten very sloppy. so not hiring coders because of AI is a dangerous thing to do and I'd advise heavily against it. your risk just got way higher because of hype. maintainability is out of the window, people don't know the code and there are so many hidden deviations to the spec that it's just not worth it.
the truth is that we stop thinking when we code like that.
You are misunderstanding coding vs logic. Coding is making our logic (which is creativity) fit into someone else's syntax. If a machine is able to translate your logic expressed in your language into running code, whats wrong? Common thats our dream isn't it? Its like you not using calculator because you are worried kids won't learn how to divide. Is assembly language better than C++? Yes - did that prevented high level languages from taking over the world? No.
If done right we all code through spec written in English, not code.
Your comment is tangental at best. You're projecting quite a lot tbh. I'm saying: the stuff it produces is shit and we don't have any connection to the outcome anymore, because our brain goes into "watching TV mode". So the outcome is garbage in any sense.
>the stuff it produces is shit
Not everyone has that opinion. I am not talking about non programmers jumping on the bandwagon but real technologists using it in real world programming [1].
> our brain goes into "watching TV mode"
How many people would have thought the same when calculator came? We can either think like - oh this tool is making kids dumb or you can think like the new tool can make them faster and efficient.
[1] https://antirez.com/news/154
In general I would agree, however the resulting systems of such an approach tend to be "just" expensive workflow systems, which could be done with old tech as well... Where is the real need for anything LLM here?
Extracting structured data from unstructured text comes to mind. We’ve built workflows that we couldn’t before by bridging a non deterministic gap. It’s a business SaaS but the folks using our software seem to be really happy with the result.
you are 100% right. LLMs are perfect for anything that required heuristics. "is that project a good fit for client A given the following specifications ... rate it from 1-10". stuff like that. I use it as a solution for an undefined search space/problem essentially.
it would take months with old tech to create a bot that can check multiple websites for specific data or information? so LLM reduces the time a lot? am I wrong?
Months? Scraping wasn’t a hard problem then. Classifying information is a different and more complex thing, which is what these models are very good at. Then again we had other means of classification before LLMs without having to go through chat bots.
I think classical ML should still be compared when you use an LLM as a classifier. some problems are so well defined you can just drop an SVM on it and be done with it. the biggest benefit of LLMs I think is you can get results that are ok quite fast. no need to split or clean data, compare metrics etc. etc.
Yes I agree: highly-focused-scope + low-stakes + high-chorelike-task is the sweet spot for agents currently.
I wrote a little about one such task, getting agents to supplement my markdown dev-log here: https://github.com/sutt/agro/blob/master/docs/case-studies/a...
Human validation is certainly the most reliable way of introducing checkpoints, but there's others: Running unit tests, doing ad-hoc validations of the entire system etc.
that goes without saying. but I'd argue: HITL is more of a workflow pattern, the rest are engineering patterns
Same. https://danieltan.weblog.lol/2025/06/agentic-ai-is-a-bubble-...
The fundamental difference is we need HITL to reduce errors instead of HOTL which leads to the errors you mentioned
I was one of the early adopters of GitHub Copilot and generally a proponent of AI assisted coding. I've recently tried "vibe coding" and oh my god, the experience couldn't be more different to what I was used to. It feels like a super expensive machine, making all kinds of mistakes and charging me for all of them. So many trial and error attempts. I ask it to do X, it conveniently does a lot of work around it, but in the end X does not work, so it just comments it out as a minor issue. It requires so much micro management, that I don't really see the purpose. Much easier and faster to just write the code myself and let it help me in that process. With agents, I feel like I'm the one helping it get a job done. I honestly can't imagine trusting this with any kind of production process.
> Each new interaction requires processing ALL previous context
I was under the impression that some kind of caching mechanism existed to mitigate this
You have to compute attention between all pairs of tokens at each step, making the naive implementation O(N^3). This is optimized by caching the previous attention values, so that for each step you only need to compute attention between the new token and all previous ones. That's much better but still O(N^2) to generate a sequence of N tokens.
When inference requires maxing out the memory of a gpu, where are you planning to keep this cache? Unless there is a way to compress the context into a more manageable snapshot, the cloud provider surely won’t keep a gpu idling just for holding a conversation in memory.
Caching would only help to keep the context around, but caching would only be needed if it still ultimately needs to read and process that cached context again.
You can cache the whole inference state, no?
They don't go into implementation details but Gemini docs say you get a 75% discount if there's a context-cache hit: https://cloud.google.com/vertex-ai/generative-ai/docs/contex...
It that just avoids having to send the full context for follow-up requests, right? My understanding is that caching helps to keep the context around but can't avoid the need to process that context over and over during inference.
The initial context processing is also cached, which is why there's a significant discount on the input token cost.
What exactly is cached though? Each loop of token inference is effectively a recursive loop that takes in all context plus all previously inferred tokens, right? Are they somehow caching the previously inferred state and able to use that more efficiently than if they just cache the context then run it all through inference again?
Yes, prompt caching helps a lot with the cost. It still adds up if you have some tool outputs with long text. I have found that breaking those out into subtasks makes the overall cost much more reasonable.
My understanding is that caching reduce computation but the whole input is still processed. I don’t think is fully disclosing how their cache works.
LLMs degrade with long input regardless of caching.
Compact the conversation (CC)
> Production systems need 99.9%+ reliability
This is not remotely true. Think of any business process around your company. 99.9% availability would mean only 1min26 per day allowed for instability/errors/downtime. Surely your human collaborators aren't hitting this SLA. A single coffee break immediately breaks this (per collaborator!).
Business Process Automation via AI doesn't need to be perfect. It simply needs to be sufficiently better than the status quo to pay for itself.
It's not just about up time. If the bridge collapses people die. Some of us aren't selling ads.
If "the bridge collapses and people die" because the team has a 1min26 "downtime" on a specific day, which is what you are arguing, then you have much bigger problems to solve than the performance of AI agents.
Uptime and reliability are not the same thing. Designing a bridge doesn't require that the engineer be working 99.9% of minutes in a day, but it does require that they be right in 99.9% of the decisions they make.
Another way to think about it is that, if the engineer isn't right in 99.9% of decision, the bridge will have 99.9% uptime.
That's pretty bad for a bridge haha
This comment makes the assumption that the software is cloud based and all that matters is uptime.
I used to work on a backup application, it ran locally on our clients' machines. We had over 10000 clients. A 99.9% reliability would mean that there are 10 of our customers, at any one point, having a problem. It's not a question of uptime. It's a question of data integrity in this case. So 99.9% reliability could even leave us open to, potentially, 10 lawsuits. Also, about 10 support calls per day.
Now we only had about 10k customers at the time. Imagine if it were millions.
I think you're crossing reliability and availability.
Reliability means 99.9% of the time when I hand something off to someone else it's what they want.
Availability means I'm at my desk and not at the coffee machine.
Humans very much are 99.9% accurate, and my deliverable even comes with a list of things I'm not confident about
An interesting comment I read in another post here is that humans aren't even 99.9% accurate in breathing, as around 1 in 1000 breaths requires coughing or otherwise cleaning the airways.
I would say reliability is availability times accuracy.
(Your point remains largely the same, just more precise with the updated definition replacing 'reliable' with 'accurate'.)
> Humans very much are 99.9% accurate
This is an extraordinary claim, which would require extraordinary evidence to prove. Meanwhile, anyone who spends a few hours with colleagues in a predominantly typing/data entry/data manipulation service (accounting, invoicing, presales, etc.) KNOWS the rate of minor errors is humongous.
Yea exactly.
99.99% is just absurd.
The biggest variable though with all this is that agents don't have to one shot everything like a human because no one is going to pay a human to do the work 5 times over to make sure the results are the same each time. At some point that will be trivial for agents to always be checking the work and looking for errors in the process 24/7.
I wouldn't take the claim to mean that humans universally have an attribute called "accuracy" that is uniformly set to the value 99.9%.
The claim is pretty clearly 'can' achieve (humans) vs 'do' achieve (LLM). Therefore one example of a human building a system at 99.9% reliability is sufficient to support the claim. That we can compute and prove reliability is really the point.
For example, the function "return 3" 100% reliably counts the Rs in strawberry. We can see the answer never changes, if it is correct once therefore, it will always be correct because the answer is always the same correct answer. A LLM can't do that, and infamously gave inaccurate results to that problem, not even reaching 80% accuracy.
For the sake of discussion, I'll define reliability to be the product of availability and accuracy and will assume accuracy (the right answer) and availability (able to get any answer) to be independent variables. In my example I held availability at a fixed 100% to illustrate why being able to achieve high accuracy is required for high reliability.
So, two points: humans can achieve 100% accuracy in the systems they build because we can prove correctness and do error checking. Because LLM cannot do 100%, frankly, there is going to be a problem that shows a distinction between max capabilities. While difficult, humans can build highly reliable complex systems. The computer is an example, that all the hardware interfaces together so well and works so often is remarkable.
Second, if every step along a pipeline is 99% reliable, then after 20 steps we are no longer talking about a system that usually works, but one that _rarely_ works. For a 20 step system to work above 50%, it really needs some steps that are effectively at 100%
Currently I'm thinking about how furious the developers get any time Jenkins has any kind of hiccough, even if the solution is just "re-run the workflow" - and that's just network timeouts! I don't want to imagine the tickets if the CI system started spitting out hallucinations...
This may not be about internal business processes. In e-commerce 90 sec can be a lot of revenue lost, and mission-critical applications such as telecommunications or air control, it would be downright a disaster (ever heard of five nines availability)?
Alot of deterministic systems externalize their edge cases to the user. The software design doesn’t fully match the reality of how it gets used. Ai can be far more flexible in the face of dynamic and variable requirements.
Very nice article. The point about mathematical reliability is interesting. I generally agree with it, but humans aren't 100% reliable, or even 99% reliable, so how do we manage to create things like the Linux kernel or the Mars landers without AI? Clearly we have some sort of goal-based self-correction mechanism. I wonder if there's research into AI on that thread?
> Clearly we have some sort of goal-based self-correction mechanism.
Humans can try things, learn, and iterate. LLMs still can't really do the second thing, you can feed back an error message into the prompt but the learning isn't being added to its weights so its knowledge doesn't compound with experience like it does for us.
I think there are still a few theoretical breakthroughs needed for LLMs to achieve AGI and one of them is "active learning" like this.
Additionally, LLMs still don’t truly understand anything, which is why they flounder so badly with e.g. writing code for a programming language or framework that it hasn’t seen a large enough set of training data for. Humans on the other hand do understand and generalize shared knowledge well, which is why we’re much better at handling that type of scenario.
More specific to agents, humans can also figure out how to use tools on the fly (even in the absence of documentation) where LLMs need human-built MCPs. This is also a significant limiting factor.
I’ve found claude to be very helpful when both writing and debugging code written in a language i’m currently building. I just make sure to load the spec into its context first and that seems to be enough for it to get a general understanding.
Everyone criticizing AI for not "understanding" anything... yet, as you found, and many others have also shown before, explain something to them and they bloody well look like they do understand it. I am still in awe at what LLMs can do, TBH. Over the last few months, the main problem with them: of confidently making shit up, seems to be getting much less of a problem... it's still not solved, but if things keep improving I wouldn't be surprised they will have controls that ensure they stop doing that, and when that happens people will be able to trust what they say/write much more... and perhaps that will be a turning point when complaints like in this post will be hard to take seriously.
The issue is that their “understanding” following an explanation is quite shallow. They often miss many connections and underlying principles that a human would grasp right away, needing to be spoon-fed these things to fill the gap.
That’s not to say they’re not useful in their current state. They are. However, I believe it’s becoming clear that there’s a hard ceiling to how capable LLMs in their current form can become and it’s going to take something radically different to break through.
> controls that ensure they stop doing that
I'm not sure you can do that. As humans, we need to make things up in order to have theories to test. Like back in the day before Einstein when people thought that light traveled through an "aether" whose properties we needed to figure out how to measure, or today when we can't explain the mass imbalance of the universe so we create this concept called "dark matter."
Also, in my experience the problem has been getting worse, or at least not better. I asked Claude 3.7 some time ago how to restore a snapshot to an active database on AWS, and it cheerfully told me to go to the console and press the button. Except there is no button, because AWS docs specifically say you can't restore a snapshot to an active database.
Compounding with learn and iterate, humans also build abstractions which significantly shorten the number of steps required. These are more expressive programming languages, compilers and toolchains. We also build engines, libraries, DSLs and invent appropriate data-structures to simplify the landscape or reuse existing work. Besides abstractions, we build tools like better type systems, error testing and borrow checkers to help eliminate certain classes of errors. Finally, after all is said and done, we still have QA teams and major bugs.
100% and it seems like we need a whole new architecture to get there, because right now training a model takes so much time.
At the risk of making a terrible analogy, right now we're able to "give birth" to these machines after months of training, but once they're born, they can't really learn. Whereas animals learn something new every day, got to sleep, clean up their memories a bit, deleting some, solidifying others, and waking up with an improved understanding of the world.
Maybe you're on to something. We need AI lions which will eat the models which don't learn or adapt enough.
I love the idea of AI lions, but you still need to find a way to allow models to continue "learning" after they're born—which is PhD worthy.
Right now we train AI babies, dump them in the wild... and expect them to have all the answers.
You could instruct the LLM to formulate a “lesson” based on the error and add this to the tool instructions for future runs.
This isn’t practical at scale. You’ll run into too many novel lessons and burn through too many tokens setting up context.
At scale you need to use more tricks. For example, only inject examples if the tool is going to be needed. Or amass lessons, then ask the LLM to summarize them to prune redundant information before it is used in the context.
Humans build theories of how things work. llms dont. Theories are deterministic and symbolic. Take the turing machine for example as a theory of computation in general, euclidean geometry as a theory for space, and newtonian mechanics as a theory for motion
Even for software applications like the Linux kernel, there would have been a theory in Linus' head - for example of what an operating system is, and how it should work.
A theory gives 100% correct predictions. Although the theory itself may not model the world accurately. Such feedback between the theory, and its application in the world causes iterations to the theory. From newtonian mechanics to relativity etc. From euclidean geometry to geometry of curved spaces etc.
Long story short, the LLM is a long way away from any of this. And to be fair to LLMs, the average human is not creating theories, it takes some genius to create them (newton, turing, etc). The average human is trading memes on social media.
I believe there was an article/paper in the last few months about that exact issue
Someone was saying that with an increasing number of attempts, or increasing context length, LLMs are less and less likely to solve a problem
(I searched for it but can't find it)
That matches my experience -- the corrections in long context can just as easily be anti-corrections, e.g. turning something that works into something that doesn't work
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Actually it might have been this one, but there are probably multiple sources saying the same thing, because it's true:
Context Rot: How Increasing Input Tokens Impacts LLM Performance - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44564248
In this report, we evaluate 18 LLMs, including the state-of-the-art GPT-4.1, Claude 4, Gemini 2.5, and Qwen3 models. Our results reveal that models do not use their context uniformly; instead, their performance grows increasingly unreliable as input length grows.
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As far this question: how do we manage to create things like the Linux kernel or the Mars landers without AI
It's because human intelligence is a totally different thing than LLMs (contrary to what interested people will tell you)
Carmack said there are at least 5 or 6 big breakthroughs left before "AGI", and I think even that is a misleading framing. It's certainly possible that "AGI" will not be reached - there could be hardware bottlenecks, software/algorithmic questions, or other obstacles we haven't thought of
That is, I would not expect AI to create anything like the Linux kernel. The burden of proof is on the people who claim that, not the other way around !!!
I saw your edit with the paper, but when you first mentioned it I thought you might have been referring to the Apple paper that more or less said the same thing.
Speaking of Apple, I just want to get it out there that I'm impressed that they're exhibiting self restraint in this AI era. I know they get bashed for not being "up to speed" with "the rest of the industry," but I believe they're doing this on purpose because they see what slop it is and they'd prefer to scope it down to release something more useful.
Humans aren't 100% reliable but we can build tools that are 100% reliable to verify our predictions.
We don't generate chains of tokens with a constant error rate so errors don't pile up. Don't ask me what we do instead for I have no clue but whatever it is, it works better than next token prediction.
Hey, maybe humans aren't just like LLMs after all.
OP here. I posted this, this morning and then promptly forgot about it. How come the title has been changed from the blog posts own?
That was annoying. Saw the post, then later had a hard time finding it again.
Actually, author should be bullish on autonomous agents considering 90% of what he's even able to do now wasn't even possible in early 2024, so you shouldn't bet against the slope of progress
Link does not work for me but as someone who does a lot of work with LLMs I am also betting against agents.
Agents have captivated the minds of groups of people in each large engineering org. I have no idea what their goal is other then they work on “GenAI”. For over a year now they have been working on agents with the promise that the next framework that MSFT or Alphabet publishes will solve their woes. They don’t actually know what they are solving for except everything involves agents.
I have yet to see agents solve anything but for some reason this idea that having an agent that you can send anything and everything will solve all problems for the company. LLMs have a ton of interesting applications but agents have yet to grasp me as interesting, I also don’t understand why so many large companies have focused time around it. They are not going to be cracking the code ahead of a commercial tool or open source project. In the time spent toying around with agents there are a lot of interesting applications that could have built, some of which may be technically an agent but without so much focus and effort on trying to solve for all use cases.
Edit: after rereading my post wanted to clarify that I do think there is a place for tool call chains and the like but so many folks I have talked to first hand are trying to create something that works for everything and anything.
I think in general if everyone is talking about a solution and nobody is talking about problems then it's a sign we're in a bubble.
For me the only problem I have is I find typing slow and laborious. I've always said if I could find a way to type less I would take it. That's why I've been using tab completion and refactoring tools etc for years now. So I'm kind of excited about being able to get my thoughts into the computer more quickly.
But having it think for me? That's not a problem I have. Reading and assimilating information? Again, not a problem I have. Too much of this is about trying to apply a solution where there is no problem.
Maybe you are in a job where it’s not a good use case but there are fields that are handling massive amounts of data or have a huge amount of time waiting for processing data before moving to the next step that I think handing it off to an AI agent to solve then a human puts the pieces together based on its own logic and experiences would work quite nice.
The HN fallacy that is a large % of the posts on AI
"AI is not good for what I do, therefore AI is useless"
not quite sure what you are proposing here. what exactly is AI agent solving in this example?
I keep hearing vague stuff exactly like your comment at work from management. Its so infuriating.
For instance cyber security toolsets like mde capture a lot of data. That data is made meaningless unless someone is looking through it, at my org there isn’t enough manpower to do that, so one solution is using an agent to help characterize that network log data into suspicious or what’s worthy of a human to follow up on.
<< I also don’t understand why so many large companies have focused time around it. They are not going to be cracking the code ahead of a commercial tool or open source project.
I think it is a mix of fomo and the 'upside' potential of being able to minimize ( ideally remove ) the expensive "human component". Note, I am merely trying to portray a specific world model.
<< In the time spent toying around with agents there are a lot of interesting applications that could have built, some of which may be technically an agent but without so much focus and effort on trying to solve for all use cases.
Preaching to the choir man. We just got custom AI tool ( which manages to have all my industry specific restrictions rendering it kinda pointless, low context making it annoying, and slower than normal, because it now has to go through several layers of approval including 'bias' ).
At the same time, committee bickers over minute change to a process that has effectively no impact on anything of value.
Bonkers.
>I think it is a mix of fomo and the 'upside' potential of being able to minimize ( ideally remove ) the expensive "human component". Note, I am merely trying to portray a specific world model.
IOW, it's a case of C-suite "monkey see, monkey do" kicked off by management consultants with crap to sell for very high prices...
I have no idea what agents are for, could be my own ignorance.
That said, I have been using LLMs for a while now with great benefit. I did not notice anything missing, and I am not sure what agents bring to the table. Do you know?
You are a manual agent to LLMs when you use things like ChatGPT. You go through a workflow loop when you try to investigate and consult with an LLM. Agents are just trying to automate your workflow against an LLM. It's basically just scripting. Scripting these LLMs is where we all want to go, but the context window length is a limiting factor, as well as inferencing on any notable sized window.
I'll manage my whiney emotions over the term Agents, but you'll have to hold a gun to my head before I embrace "Agentic", which is a thoroughly stupid word. "Scripted workflow" is what it is, but I know there are some true "visionaries" out there ready to call it "Sentient workflow".
Exactly, thank you.
What I am doing is definitely manual, it is the old-fashioned prompt-copy-paste-test-repeat cycle, but it has been educational.
I will join you in the fight against "agentic". Ridiculous.
An agent is an LLM + a tool call loop - it is quite a step up in terms of value in my experience
Agents are more than that.
Agents, besides tool use, also have memory, can plan work towards a goal, and can, through an iterative process (Reflect - Act), validate if they are on the right track.
If an agent takes a Topic A and goes down a rabbit hole all the way to Topic Z, you'll see that it won't be able to incorporate or backtrack back to Topic A without losing a lot of detail from the trek down to Topic Z. It's a serious limitation right now from the application development side of things, but I'm just reiterating what the article pointed out, which is that you need to work with fewer step workflows that isn't as ambitious as covering all things from A-Z.
Yes, that's commonly referred to as the Exploration-Exploitation Dilemma. Should the agent go deep or wide?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploration%E2%80%93exploitati...
Not a disagreement with you but wanted to further clarify.
I do think it’s a step up when done correctly. Thinking of tools like Cursor. Most of my concern and issue comes from the amount of folks I have seen trying to great a system that solves everything. I know in my org people were working on Agents without even a problem they were solving for. They are effectively trying to recreate ChatGPT which to me is a fools errand.
I’d boil it down thusly:
What do agents provide? Asynchronous work output, decoupled from human time.
That’s super valuable in a lot of use cases! Especially because it’s a prerequisite for parallelizing “AI” use (1 human : many AI).
But the key insight from TFA (which I 100% agree with) is that the tyranny of sub-100% reliability compounded across multiple independent steps is brutal.
Practical agent folks should be engineering risk / reliability, instead of happy path.
And there are patterns and approaches to do that (bounded inputs, pre-classification into workable / not-workable, human in the loop), but many teams aren’t looking at the right problem (risk/reliability) and therefore aren’t architecting to those methods.
And there’s fundamentally no way to compose 2 sequential 99% reliable steps into a 99% reliable system with a risk-naive approach.
What is the use case? What does it solve exactly, or what practical value does it give you? I am not sure what a tool call loop is.
An example:
I updated a svelte component at work, and while i could test it in the browser and see it worked fine, the existing unit test suddenly started failing. I spent about an hour trying to figure out why the results logged in the test didn't match the results in the browser.
I got frustrated, gave in and asked Claude Code, an AI agent. The tool call loop is something like: it reads my code, then looks up the documentation, then proposed a change to the test which i approve, then it re-runs the test, feeds the output back into the AI, re-checks the documentation, and then proposes another change.
It's all quite impressive, or it would be if at one point it didn't randomly say "we fixed it! The first element is now active" -- except it wasn't, Claude thought the first element was element [1], when of course the first element in an array is [0]. The test hadn't even actually passed.
An hour and a few thousand Claude tokens my company paid for and got nothing back for lol.
any examples outside of coding agents ?
Even in this example coding agent is short lived . I am curious about continuously running agents that are never done.
A friend of mine set up a cron job coupled with the Claude API to process his email inbox every 30 minutes and unsubscribe/archive/delete as necessary. It could also be expanded to draft replies (I forget if his does this) and even send them, if you’re feeling lucky. I’m pretty sure the AI (I’m guessing Claude Code in this case) wrote most or all of the code for the script that does the interaction with the email API.
An example of my own, not agentic or running in a loop, but might be an interesting example of a use case for this stuff: I had a CSV file of old coupon codes I needed to process. Everything would start in limbo, uncategorized. Then I wanted to be able to search for some common substrings and delete them, search for other common substrings and keep them. I described what I wanted to do with Claude 3.7 and it built out a ruby script that gave me an interactive menu of commands like search to select/show all/delete selected/keep selected. It was an awesome little throwaway script that would’ve taken me embarrassingly long to write, or I could’ve done it all by hand in Excel or at the command line with grep and stuff, but I think it would’ve taken longer.
Honestly one of the hard things about using AI for me is remembering to try to use it, or coming up with interesting things to try. Building up that new pattern recognition.
No, the fact Claude couldn't remember that JavaScript is zero-indexed for more than 20 minutes has not left me interested in letting it take on bigger tasks
The tools can be an editor/terminal/dev environment, automatically iterating to testing the changes and refining until a finished product, without a human developer, at least that is what some wish of it.
Oh, okay, I understand it now, especially with the other comment that said Cursor is one. OK, makes sense. Seems like it "just" reduces friction (quite a lot).
Yeah, it's really just a user experience improvement. In particular, it makes AI look a lot better if it can internally retry a bunch of times until it comes up with valid code or whatever, instead of you having to see each error and prompt it to fix it. (Also, sometimes they can do fancy sampling tricks to force the AI to produce a syntactically valid result the first time. Mostly this is just used for simple JSON schemas though.)
Thank you, that is what my initial thought was. I am still doing things the old-fashioned way, thankfully it has worked out for me (and learned a lot in the process), but perhaps this AI agent thing might speed things up a bit. :D Although then I will learn much less.
> I am not sure what a tool call loop is.
See https://ampcode.com/how-to-build-an-agent
that was a great read, thanks! - agentic noob
Cursor is my classic example. I don’t know exactly what tools are defined in their loop but you give the agent some code to write. It may search your code base, it may then search online for third party library docs. Then come back and write some code etc.
If it were only tool use, then it would be the same as a lambda function.
Link is working for me — perhaps it was not 30 minutes ago? (Safari, MacOS)
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That’s a bit reductive and misses the core issue. Of course companies want to reduce headcount or boost productivity, but many are pursuing these initiatives without a clear problem in mind. If the mandate were, say, “we’re building X to reduce customer support staff by 20%,” that would be a different story. Instead, it often feels like solution-first thinking without a clear target.
Edit: not even going to reply to comments below as they continue down a singular path of oh you ought to know what they are trying to do. The only point I was making is orgs are going solution-first without a real problem they are trying to solve and I don’t think that is the right approach.
> “we’re building X to reduce customer support staff by 20%,”
I've never understood the "do X to increase/decrease Y by Z%". I remember working at McDonalds and the managers worked themselves up into a frenzy to increase "sale of McSlurry by 10%". All it meant was that they nagged people more and sold less of something else. It's not like people's stomachs got 10% larger.
The sad part is that companies doing this will very soon figure out that the 20% less staff they "achieved" is only at a cost of 100% increase in development and fees to LLM vendor. Moreover, after a few years these fees will skyrocket because their businesses are now dependent on this technology and unlike people, LLMs are monopolized by just a few robber barons.
That is not a goal that can be shared without alienating the current workforce. So you can bet that goal was clearly stated at CXO level, and is being communicated/translated piece wise as let’s find out how much more productive we can get with AI. You’re going to find out about the goal once you reach it.
That is not to say you should work against your company, but bear in mind this is a goal and you should consider where you can add value outside of general code factory productivity and how for example you can become a force multiplier for the company.
I agree, and would like to hear examples of where this has not been the case. I'm sure they're out there. But pretty much everything has been "how can we use LLMs" and "it doesn't matter if it was a problem that we had that needed to be solved; we need to gain experience now because AI is The Future and we can't be left behind".
Occasionally it works and people stumble across a problem worth solving as they go about applying their solution to everything. But that's not planning or top-down direction. That's not identifying a target in advance.
yes my organization head at my employer has asked us to submit: "Generative AI Agent" proposals for upcoming planning session. Apparently those ideas will get the big seat at the planning table. I've been trying to think of many ideas but they all end up being some sort of workflow automation that was possible without agent stuff.
Agreed with your annoyance at "they are replacing you" comments. like duh. Thats what they've been doing forever.
I think the "math" on reliability-over-steps will end up differently than described here in the long term because getting new factual input from the real world should improve the reliability of the end state, and we have all observed agentic systems at this point producing that behavior at least sometimes (e.g., a test failure prompts claude code to refactor correctly).
Whether or not one term in this equation currently compounds faster is a good question, or under what circumstances, etc., but presenting agentic abilities as always flawed thinking resulting in impossible long term task execution isn't right. Humans are flawed and require long, drawn out multi task thinking to get correct answers, and interacting with and getting feedback from the world outside the mind during a task execution process typically raises the chance of the correct answer being spit out in the end.
I'd agree that the agentic math isn't great at the moment, but if it's possible to reduce hallucinations or raise the strength and frequency effect of real world feedback on the model, you could see this playing out differently perhaps quite soon. There's at least a couple of examples of "we're already there".
> Error rates compound exponentially in multi-step workflows. 95% reliability per step = 36% success over 20 steps. Production needs 99.9%+.
This misses a key feature of agents though. They get feedback from linters, build logs, test runs and even screenshots. And they collect this feedback themselves. This means they can error correct some mistakes along the way.
The math works out differently, depending on how well it can collect automated feedback it is doing what you want.
Correct, I think it is better to see it as multiple stages. Investigation stage might spin off tasks to read files, perform searches online, summarise the request. Then ‘main stage’ where it performs changes. Afterwards indeed the testing+fixing stage where it verifies the results and potentially performs a couple fixes. These plans are predictable and the models learn which steps are relevant first particular projects.
For context, relevant information from steps can be cherrypicked to next stage.
The math works differently because AI (mostly) ignores irrelevant results. So steps actually increase reliability overall.
These are all solvable problems. The issue is given the race to get to a certain ARR quickly, many startups end up not focusing on these. There is some truth to AI agents being not as useful as their promise, but the problems mentioned are engineering problems, and once we start seeing them with a different lens, they would start working. (This is not to say I believe orchestration or multi step agents are a way to go, I personally lean heavily towards RL. Just that the criticisms here assumes the state would remain the same even without AI advancement).
Eg: you need good verifiers (to understand whether a task is done successfully or not). Many tasks have easier verifications than doing the task. YOu have five parallel generations with 80% accuracy, the probablity of getting one right (and a verifier which can pick that) goes to 99.96%. With multi step too, the math changes in a similar manner. It just needs a different approach than how we have built software till date. He even hints at a paradigm with 3-5 discrete step workflow which works superbly well. We need to build more in that way.
> Many tasks have easier verifications than doing the task.
In the software world (like the article is talking about) this is the logic that has ruthlessly cut software QA teams over the years. I think quality has declined as a result.
Verifiers are hard because the possible states of the internal system + of the external world multiply rapidly as you start going up the component chain towards external-facing interfaces.
That coordination is the sort of thing that really looks appealing for LLMs - do all the tedious stuff to mock a dependency, or pre-fill a database, etc - but they have an unfortunate tendency to need to be 100% correct in order for the verification test that depends on them to be worth anything. So you can go further down the rabbit hole, and build verifiers for each of those pre-conditions. This might recurse a few times. Now you end up with the math working against you - if you need 20 things to all be 100%, then even high chances of each individual one starts to degrade cumulatively.
A human generally wouldn't bother with perfect verification of every case, it's too expensive. A human would make some judgement calls of which specific things to test in which ways based on their intimate knowledge of the code. White box testing is far more common than black box testing. Test a bunch of specific internals instead of 100% permutations of every external interface + every possible state of the world.
But if you let enough of the code to solve the task be LLM-generated, you stop being in a position to do white-box testing unless you take the time to internalize all the code the machine wrote for you. Now your time savings have shrunk dramatically. And in the current state of the world, I find myself having to correct it more often then not, further reducing my confidence and taking up more time. In some places you can try to work around this by adjusting your interfaces to match what the LLM predicts, but this isn't universal.
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In the non-software world the situation is even more dire. Often verification is impossible without doing the task. Consider "generate a report on the five most promising gaming startups" - there's no canonical source to reference. Yet these are things people are starting to blindly hand off to machines. If you're an investor doing that to pick companies, you won't even find out if you're wrong until it's too late.
This is not an NxM verifier hell. I explicitly talked about one way which is parallel generation + classifier. You can also use majority voting here. Both would give you the right answer at each step without having to write code or test cases, just a simple prompt. There are more ways to do the same, eg: verifier blocks, layering, backtracking search (end to end assertions and then see which step went wrong), simple generative verifiers with simpler prompts and so on.
For non software world, people use majority voting most of the time.
That’s a common fallacy. I suggest you make a plot of failure rate vs amount of components that can fail, any one of them failing leading to a total failure. You’ll be shocked by how quickly you get terrible numbers.
I talk about it from experience. How else do you think people are training RL agents if not based on verifiers? You don't have to verify every output at every step, you just need enough to course correct the agent and catch early when it's going wrong. That is the exact fallacy I was trying to address. The optimization comes from realizing the critical checks and then what passes to the next step. Requires letting go of the previous thinking and changing paradigms.
The failure rate is high because you view it in series. At test time you need to know what is correct from the options (including nothing correct), you dont need to know why it failed. You can debug later. The challenge is how easily can you return to the right track.
Is it reasonable to assume the five generations are independent?
They are not completely independent. It's a good assumption though. If a model encounters something out of distribution then all five of the generations will fail. If the model knows and went in a wrong direction (due to lack of reliability), within five generations, it can be corrected. You need evals, runtime verifiers as basic harness for AI systems.
This is correct. Multiple different agents trying, multiple retries, and many other different solutions can help with this. I have seen agents try one method, get negative feedback, and then try another working method.
See "Campbell's Completeness Conjecture" https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/dont-trust-machines
> Let's do the math. If each step in an agent workflow has 95% reliability, which is optimistic for current LLMs,then: 5 steps = 77% success rate 10 steps = 59% success rate 20 steps = 36% success rate Production systems need 99.9%+ reliability.
(End quote)
Isn't this just wrong? Isn't the author conflating accuracy of LLM output in each step to accuracy of final artifact which is a reproducible deterministic piece of code?
And they're completely missing that a person in the middle is going to intervene at some point to test it and at that point the output artifact's accuracy either goes to 100% or the person running the agent would backtrack.
Either am missing something or this does not seem well thought through.
How is it that the final result is a reproducible deterministic piece of code, when the prompts become the "source code" itself, and the underlying model used is constantly changing (being updated), which is equivalent to your programming language changing its semantics every other day and refusing to tell you exactly what has changed (because they can't). Not to mention the nondeterminism that a lot of times is present due to nondeterministic order of evaluation when parallelizing?
He's not wrong. The numbers are too pessimistic, however when building software the numbers don't need to be as high for a complete disaster to happen. Even if just 1% of the code is bad, it is still very difficult to make this work.
And you mention testing, which certainly can be done. But when you have a large product and the code generator is unreliable (which LLMs always are), then you have to spend most of your time testing.
Did you even finish the article? The end is all about the trade-off of when "a person in the middle is going to intervene".
In fact, the point of the whole article isn't that AI doesn't work; to the contrary, it's that long chains of (20+) actions with no human intervention (which many agentic companies promise) don't work.
I used to believe the error rate fallacy, but:
1. Multi-turn agents can correct themselves with more steps, so the reductive error cascade thinking here is more wrong than right in my experience
2. The 99.9% production requirement is so contextual and misleading, when the real comparison is often something like "outage", "dead air", "active incident", "nobody on it", "prework before/around human work", "proactive task no one had time for before", etc.
Similar to infra as code, CI, and many other automation processes, there's mountains of work that isn't being done and LLMs can do entirely or large swathes of
How about those large swaths are done with LLMs, but instead of spending all that time reviewing that code (really reviewing it, not just a brief LGTM), which would make the time savings moot, you just decide to personally assume responsibility for that code being dead wrong sometimes and the consequences it causes (you cannot blame the AI. As far as anyone is concerned, you wrote the code and signed off on it). As in, legal liability. Would you take the deal?
No, it is not "mathematically impossible". It is empirically implausible. There is no statement in mathematics that says that agents can not have a 99.999% reliability rate.
Also, if you look at any human process you will realize that none of them have a 100% reliability rate. Yet, even without that we can manufacture e.g. a plane, something which takes millions of steps, each without a 100% success rate.
I actually think the article makes some good points, but especially when you are making good points it is unnecessary to stretch credibility with exaggerating your arguments.
This is a good point, but it seems, empirically, that most parts of a standard passenger airplane have reliability approximating 100% in a predefined time window with proper inspection and maintenance, otherwise passenger transit would be impossible. When the system does start to degrade, e.g. because replacement parts and maintenance becomes unavailable or too costly (cf. the use of imported planes by Russian airlines after the sanctions hit), incidents quickly start piling up.
It's about what you do with errors. If you let them compound they lead to destruction, if instead you inspect, maintain, reinspect, replace, etc. you can manage them.
My point was that something extremely complex, like a plane, works, because the system tries hard to prevent compounding errors.
That works because each plane is (nearly) exactly the same as the one before it and we have exact specifications for the plane.
You can do maintenance, inspections, and replacement because of those specifications.
In software the equivalent of blueprints is code. The room for variation outside software “specifications” is infinite.
Human reliability when comes to assembling planes is also much higher than 99%, and LLM reliability creating code is much, much lower than 99%.
If you think human reliability when writing code is more than 99%, have I got news for you!
If you’re going by bugs per lines of code, I’m far higher than 99% reliable.
When measuring the reliability of my vacuum, I don't go by component, so I don't go by line when I measure the reliability of my code.
Ok if we measure uptime of the software I’ve written it’s far higher than 99%.
Again, we're not measuring uptime. We're measuring how many of them had at least one bug.
So if your vacuum had one component that was out of spec, but didn’t put it out of commission for any length of time, it’s 0% reliable?
Valid point, however the promise of AI is that it will be able to manufacture a metaphorical “plane” for each and every prompt user inputs I.e. give 100% overall reliability by using all kinds of techniques (testing, decomposing etc) that intelligence can come up with.
So until these techniques are baked into the model by OpenAI, you have to come up with these ideas yourself.
I just want someone to give me one legit use case where an AI Agent now enables them to do something that couldn’t be done before, and actually makes an impact on overall profit.
I can write code I wouldn't have been bothered to before, and make money from it.
This is exactly right! I'm happy people are starting to care about compounding errors, we use the sigma terminology: https://www.silverstream.ai/blog-news/2sigma
Agents are digital manufacturing machines and benefit from the same processes we identified for reliability in the real world
>A database query might return 10,000 rows, but the agent only needs to know "query succeeded, 10k results, here are the first 5." Designing these abstractions is an art.
It seems the author never used prompt/workflow optimization techniques.
LLM-AutoDiff: Auto-Differentiate Any LLM Workflow https://arxiv.org/pdf/2501.16673
The alternative is building Functional Intelligence process flows from the ground up on a foundation of established truth?
If 50% of training data is not factually accurate, this needs to be weeded out.
Some industries require a first principles approach, and there are optimal process flows that lead to accurate and predictable results. These need research and implementation by man and machine.
Same experience. I started in mid 2023 building agents. The agents that are still working on production - they do one specific thing and the only coordination/integration I allow is via automation framework based on deterministic api only.
TFA is a bit rambling and readers are getting distracted by specific claims, like the bit about 99.9%+ reliability. TFAs main point is that productive use of AI agents requires tightly specified context and frequent human intervention, which is what folks have been saying for a while.
Llm are great reflections. Issues I have come across too large of context confuse the llm.
Second since llm are non deterministic in nature how do you know if the quality went from 90% to 30% there is no test you can write. What if model provider degrades quality you have no test for it
>Enterprise systems aren't clean APIs waiting for AI agents to orchestrate them. They're legacy systems with quirks, partial failure modes, authentication flows that change without notice, rate limits that vary by time of day, and compliance requirements that don't fit neatly into prompt templates.
Perhaps that's why MCP as a protocol is so interesting to people - MCP servers are a chance at a 'blank slate' in front of the enterprise system. You pull out only the parts you're interested in, you get to define clear boundaries when you build the MCP server, the LLM sees only what you want it to see and you hide the messiness of the enterprise system.
It’s on the wrong layer for that. MCP is akin to putting GraphQL over an old and crufty SOAP interface. There’s some “intelligence” in the GraphQL layer, but it doesn’t fix flaws in the lower layer such as side effects that shouldn’t be there.
It's clear that what we currently call AI is best suited for augmentation not automation. There are a lot of productivity gains available if you're willing to accept that.
the most frustrating part of these interactive ai assistants is when it sends me down a rabbit hole of an api that doesn't exist (but looks almost right)
From what I understand customer support chatbots have had some pretty good outcomes from ai agents. Or does that not count?
I think that would be one of the success cases described in the article because HITL is an integral part of good customer support chatbots. Support chats can be escalated to a human whenever the agent is unable to provide a satisfactory answer to the user.
"Your fancy AI scaffolds will be washed away by scale." - Noam Brown
The compounding error rate in long-running processes is just one side of the coin. You can also use models to catch errors, and those success rates compound as well. So, it's not like you have no options to fight against a giant failure rate monster...
Building shovels during a fool’s gold rush, nice
> The Mathematical Reality No One Talks About
literally everybody talks about this lmao what are you on about https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5EltXhbcfA
"forever"?
I still don’t even know what an agent is. Everyone seems to have their own definition. And invariably it’s generic vagaries about architecture, responsibilities of the LLM, sub-agents, comparisons to workflows, etc.
But still not once have I seen an actual agent in the wild doing concrete work.
A “No True Agent” problem if you will.
Technically speaking, Claude Code is an agent, for example. It's just a fancy term for an LLM that can call tools in a loop until it thinks it's done with whatever it was tasked to do.
ChatGPT's Deep Research mode is also an agent: it will keep crawling the web and refining things until it feels it has enough material to write a good response.
[stub for offtopicness]
Don't tell management about this, as they're all betting the house on AI agents next year.
Only one of these outcomes will be correct, so worth putting money on it if you think they're wrong a la The Big Short.
Not OP, but I've been thinking about this and concluded it's not quite so clear-cut. If I was going to go down this path, I think I would bet on competitors, rather than against incumbents.
My thinking: In a financial system collapse (a la The Big Short), the assets under analysis are themselves the things of value. Whereas betting on AI to collapse a technology business is at least one step removed from actual valuation, even assuming:
1. AI Agents do deliver just enough, and stay around long enough, for big corporations to lay off large number of employees
2. After doing so, AI quickly becomes prohibitively expensive for the business
3. The combination of the above factors tank business productivity
In the event of a perfect black swan, the trouble is that it's not actually clear that this combination of factors would result in concrete valuation drops. The business just "doesn't ship as much" or "ships more slowly". This is bad, but it's only really bad if you have competitors that can genuinely capitalise on that stall.
An example immediately on-hand: for non-AI reasons, the latest rumors are that Apple's next round of Macbook Pros will be delayed. This sucks. But isn't particularly damaging to the company's stock price because there isn't really a competitor in the market that can capitalise on that delay in a meaningful way.
Similarly, I couldn't really tell you what the most recent non-AI software features shipped by Netflix or Facebook or X actually were. How would I know if they're struggling internally and have stopped shipping features because AI is too expensive and all their devs were laid off?
I guess if you're looking for a severe black swan to bet against AI Agents in general, you'd need to find a company that was so entrenched and so completely committed to and dependent on AI that they could not financially survive a shock like that AND they're in a space where competitors will immediately seize advantage.
Don't get me wrong though, even if there's no opportunity to actually bet against that situation, it will still suck for literally everyone if it eventuates.
It’s tricky to predict how AI impacts business value directly. You might want to check out MailsAI for insights on how companies adjust their strategies in uncertain times. It helped me see the bigger picture without getting lost in assumptions.
If you want to bet on a competitor, let's talk cause I'm your guy. While everyone else was looking the other way, I stole home: https://github.com/bablr-lang
shorting only works if people realise it when you do. c-suite will run out of make up before admitting its a pig because the pay off is huge for them. I reckon agentic dev can function "just enough" to allow them to delay the reality for a bit while they fire more of their engineering team.
I don't think this one is worth shorting because there's no specific event to trigger the mindshare to start moving and validating your position. You'd have to wait for very big public failures before the herd start to move.
Do you have suggestions on how one would go about doing this? Do you just approach a betting company and make some prediction against some wager?
While true, the world doesn't end in 2025. While I would also agree that big financial benefits from agents to companies appear unlikely to arrive this year (and the title specifically mentions 2025) I would bet on agents becoming a disruptive technology in the next 5-10 years. My 2c.
Why this timeline? What’s missing today that would make it possible in 5-10 years?
Just empirical observations. It takes time to propagate technology down to general businesses and business methods up to technology developers. The "propagate down to business methods" is the slower path, as it requires business leaders to become familiar enough with technology to get ideas on how to leverage it.
This is not a new observation -- Clark's note on overestimating short term and underestimating long term impact of technology is one of my favorite patterns. My 2c.
This is what I try to explain to people who ask "If LLMs are so good why haven't they replaced workers?". Well it takes a long time for the railroads to be built. What use is a locomotive without rails?
Better models?
Claude Code is impressive but it still produces quite a bit of garbage in my experience, and coding agents are likely to be the best agents around for the foreseeable future.
Shorting is rarely worth it without detailed information, because you also have to get the timing right. If you short AI now but it crashes in two years, chances are good that you lost a lot of money.
They're just following the herd.
This is obviously AI generated, if that matters.
And I have an AI workflow that generates much better posts than this.
I think it's just written by someone who reads a lot of LLM output - lots of lists with bolded prefixes. Maybe there was some AI-assistance (or a lot), but I didn't get the impression that it was AI-generated as a whole.
"Hard truth" and "reality check" in the same post is dead giveaway.
I read and generate hundreds of posts every month. I have to read books on writing to keep myself sane and not sound like an AI.
Absolutely! And you're right to think that. Here's why...
Applogies! You're exactly right, here's how this spans out…
True, the graphs are also wonky - the curves don't match the supposed math.
Yeah that was confusing to me
I wonder why a person from Bombay India might use AI to aid with an English language blog post…
Perhaps more interesting is whether their argument is valid and whether their math is correct.
The thing that sucks about it is maybe his english is bad (not his native language) so he relies on LLM output for his posts. Im inclined to cut people slack for this. But the rub is that it is indistinguishable from spam/slop generated for marketing/ads/whatever.
Or it's possible that he is one of those people that _realy_ adopted LLMs into _all_ their workflow, I guess, and he thinks the output is good enough as is, because it captured his general points?
LLMs have certainly damaged trust in general internet reading now, that's for sure.
I am not pro or against AI-generated posts. I was just making an observation and testing my AI classifier.
The graphs don't line up. I'm inclined to believe they were hallucinated by an LLM and the author either didn't check them or didn't care.
Judging by the other comments this is clearly low-effort AI slop.
> LLMs have certainly damaged trust in general internet reading now, that's for sure.
I hate that this is what we have to deal with now.
I don't know why you do. I found the article interesting, derived value from it. I don't care if it's an LLM or a human that gave me the value. I don't see why it should matter.
It matters to me for so many reasons that I can't go over them all here. Maybe we have different priorities, and that's fine.
One reason why LLM generated text bothers me is because there's no conscious, coherent mind behind it. There's no communicative intent because language models are inherently incapable of it. When I read a blog post, I subconsciously create a mental model of the author, deduce what kind of common ground we might have and use this understanding to interpret the text. When I learn that an LLM generated a text I've read, that mental model shatters and I feel like I was lied to. It was just a machine pretending to be a human, and my time and attention could've been used to read something written by a living being.
I read blogs to learn about the thoughts of other humans. If I wanted to know what an LLM thought about the state of vibe coding, I could just ask one at any time.
Real question: what's the best way to short AI right now?
Just short any of the publicly traded companies with AI based valuations? Nvida, Meta? Seems like an awful idea but I'm often wrong.
Nvidia and Meta are both involved in a lot more than AI. There are maybe other reasons to short Meta, but either is definitely not a pure AI play.
I mean, I wouldn't bet against AI, but I'm also not certain the current AI company valuations are realistic.
> In a Nutshell
> AI tools aren't perfect yet. They sometimes make mistakes, and they can't always understand what you are trying to do. But they're getting better all the time, In the future, they will be more powerful and helpful. They'll be able to understand your code even better, and they'll be able to generate even more creative ideas.
From another post on the same site. [0]
Yup, slop.
[0]: https://utkarshkanwat.com/writing/review-of-coding-tools/
"Let's do the math. "
This phrase is usually followed by some, you know...Math?
The article is slop. That’s just a phrase ChatGPT uses a lot.
2015? The title should be 2025.
2015? Title is correct, this is a typo
Sorry about that, my fault, moderating from my phone.
Let's get a timer to watch this fall off the front page of HN in minutes.
"We can't allow this post to create FUD about the current hype on AI agents and we need the scam to continue as long as possible".
we need a flag button for “written by AI”.
I’m at this stage where I’m fine with AI generated content. Sure, the verbosity sucks - but there’s an interesting idea here, but make it clear that you’ve used AI, and show your prompts.
Generally speaking, low quality posts don't spend too much time on the front page, regardless of their topic.
... and it's gone. Stopped the timer on 2 hours and 38 mins.
AI is for people without natural intelligence.
Yea just average IQ like Terence Tao.
All you are really saying with this comment is you have an incredibly narrow set of interests and absolutely no intellectual curiosity.
So it's for 90+ percent of society?
Sounds like good business to me.
Downvotes are for comments like yours
I’m sure most of the problems cited in this article will be easily solved within the next five years or so, waiting for perfection and doing nothing won’t pay dividends
Is the main point “let me mathematically prove that it’s impossible to do what I’ve already done 12 times this year?”
Yes, very long workflows with no checks in between will have high error rates. This is true of human workflows too (which also have <100% accuracy at each step). Workflows rarely have this many steps in practice and you can add review points to combat the problem (as evidenced by the author building 12 of these things and not running into this problem)