Never, but it will replace what devs do with something else. No one has really figured out what that is yet. It almost certainly isn't writing code by hand though.
Your list of small projects is a good example of how things are changing. Before AI businesses would have wanted tools like those things, but spending tens or hundreds of thousands of pounds to get them was too much, so they lived without unless there was either a clear need or a cheaper off-the-shelf option. Now businesses can afford to get a small team to spend a month on something, and only spend a little. Price is usually relative to the value of a project, and AI means the price is far better aligned to value for small things.
I'm seeing the same benefit as an Engineering Manager in a small tech company. I can spend an afternoon building a useful tool that I couldn't really justify taking the time to build before when it would have taken me 3 days, so my toolset is expanding fast, and with it I'm getting more effective (I hope.) AI is not taking dev jobs away because we're getting more software, with narrower focus, delivered faster. That's awesome.
That justification was always the issue before. The cost of entry to a working solution for a problem was always high enough that low or very-low value propositions couldn't jump the starting gate (cost > value). AI assisted coding has lowered that barrier tremendously. Despite the negativity around vibe-coding - this is the sweet spot. The long-tail of lower value prop demand that couldn't justify the cost of getting built. In the enterprise world, RPA lowered some of that barrier. Vibe coding is next level lowering that barrier.
I don't know if/when/how it replaces devs
Never, but it will replace what devs do with something else. No one has really figured out what that is yet. It almost certainly isn't writing code by hand though.
Your list of small projects is a good example of how things are changing. Before AI businesses would have wanted tools like those things, but spending tens or hundreds of thousands of pounds to get them was too much, so they lived without unless there was either a clear need or a cheaper off-the-shelf option. Now businesses can afford to get a small team to spend a month on something, and only spend a little. Price is usually relative to the value of a project, and AI means the price is far better aligned to value for small things.
I'm seeing the same benefit as an Engineering Manager in a small tech company. I can spend an afternoon building a useful tool that I couldn't really justify taking the time to build before when it would have taken me 3 days, so my toolset is expanding fast, and with it I'm getting more effective (I hope.) AI is not taking dev jobs away because we're getting more software, with narrower focus, delivered faster. That's awesome.
That justification was always the issue before. The cost of entry to a working solution for a problem was always high enough that low or very-low value propositions couldn't jump the starting gate (cost > value). AI assisted coding has lowered that barrier tremendously. Despite the negativity around vibe-coding - this is the sweet spot. The long-tail of lower value prop demand that couldn't justify the cost of getting built. In the enterprise world, RPA lowered some of that barrier. Vibe coding is next level lowering that barrier.
more software, delivered faster, narrower focus.
this is a great line. very well put
Hi Chris. I don't suppose you've open-sourced the content-writing tool by any chance?