Data releases are unlikely to have much impact as they are all backward looking, the market will trade off vibes and tweets until a timeline for the conflict becomes apparent.
This is textbook Pozsar. His Bretton Woods III framework argues the global monetary system is shifting from inside money (Treasuries, dollar reserves) to outside money (commodities, gold). Every time a geopolitical shock disrupts physical commodity flows, the premium on outside money reprices upward. Hormuz closing is exactly the scenario he built the framework around. Wrote a two-part deep dive on the thesis last year: https://philippdubach.com/posts/pozsars-bretton-woods-iii-th...
CPI Wednesday, Dollar General Thursday. Next week certainly going to be interesting.
> CPI Wednesday
For the month of February 2026.
Data releases are unlikely to have much impact as they are all backward looking, the market will trade off vibes and tweets until a timeline for the conflict becomes apparent.
This is textbook Pozsar. His Bretton Woods III framework argues the global monetary system is shifting from inside money (Treasuries, dollar reserves) to outside money (commodities, gold). Every time a geopolitical shock disrupts physical commodity flows, the premium on outside money reprices upward. Hormuz closing is exactly the scenario he built the framework around. Wrote a two-part deep dive on the thesis last year: https://philippdubach.com/posts/pozsars-bretton-woods-iii-th...
Suggested direct link as it changes: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Price...
fyi this is the font-month contract. there are many of them staggered out , so ETF buyers will not see as much upside
what
Oil futures (months out) are priced lower than spot, presumably due to anticipation that Iran driven disruption to the market will be short lived.
(Remains to be seen whether that's true)
ty!