This is just for England not the whole UK. Just saying. In Scotland, there has been a move to have an autism commissioner as if that's going to benefit the lives of most autistic people. Don't know about Wales and Northern Ireland.
It is primarily driven by the expansion of the diagnosis itself. DSM-3 Autism (1980) is quite different from DSM-5 Autism (today). We use the same word to describe two different things. Today's autism includes things that used to have totally different names. It also "allows" for a diagnosis much later in life. Autism used to be something very specific and discreet. From another perspective, the rate may not be soaring. That is, many more people in the 1980s and 1990s would be autistic by today's new standard.
This is almost not even up for debate anymore. At this point there is myriad evidence of it being the latter. For example, autism in women was all but ignored until recently, and is still under-diagnosed. Remember Grandma and her lifelong fixation on china saucers or whatever?
Yes, I do remember. That was a latent effect of the great depression mixed with grandma not having to work so that was her hobby. Pretty tired of having a hobby or specific domain knowledge being labeled as "lol autism".
It's because people have discovered that (1) motte and bailey fallacies [0] and equivocation of language (between, e.g. identity and diagnosis) are highly effective rhetorical tools; (2) merely identifying as something ontologically changes the metaphysical structure of reality [1] which confers certain societal benefits.
There is a matrix of is-diagnosed, is-not-diagnosed, identifies-as, does-not-identify-as, which is open to exploitation by those who "identify as" something they are not diagnosed with. Who gets fucked? The people who are diagnosed but do not identify as their diagnosis.
God help me once we start adding another dimension of people who have a condition, but are also not diagnosed and do not identify with it either...
I have SchizoAffective Disorder, I also have a Major Mood disorder, and depression. When I was 5, they thought I had autism, but I did an IQ test and had the mental age of 12, and said autism didn't apply to me because I have a high IQ. They didn't know about high-functioning autism back then. So I think I was misdiagnosed. I think I am on the spectrum somewhere on the high end. I learn fast, but sometimes forget what I learned. I am 57 now.
There is a huge amount of overlap between the genes associated with schizophrenia and the genes associated with autism. This is part of what makes it tricky to diagnose yourself, because anyone who has the genes for schizophrenia is also going to have a lot of autism symptoms even if they don't have autism.
I’m 42 but British. I was a weird kid, but over in Blighty autism wasn’t something that was even considered back then - just “how much more do we need to cane him until he’s normal?!”.
It turns out, no amount. Now I’m just a weird adult with an ironclad distrust of all authority.
I am a bit older and i grew up in New Jersey, and it wasn't much different. My teacher once told me she was going to cut my finger off because i always counted with them . Punk rock saved my life .
Ok. Maybe. In areas I'm familiar with fraud is so widespread as to feel like the simpler answer. But I have no context for places with medical fraud so I bow to your experience here
Absent enforcement, proceeds from fraud are invested in more fraud. Given that fraud exists in this area, the shape of the growth curve suggests fraud as a plausible driver.
An autist, properly managed, is a wonderful employee. Way better than "normies". Great for science and engineering. Strong motive for creating more autists.
I don't really understand the extremity of the "autism is a spectrum" thing. Yes, of course it is. Nothing in the parent comment is disrespectful of that or 4chan-y. I see this mysterious interaction a lot.
Well then some significant proportion of "persons of autismness" are really good at that stuff.
They really know how to concentrate. It's next level, unknown by the normies. You want a guy who can give his full obsessive waking attention to a riddle for days or years, that's where you look. And that makes them valuable. Which brings us to my actual point.
This UK government posted a report recently, which I guess prompted this article.
Review into mental health conditions, ADHD and autism: interim report (gov.uk). https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/independent-revie...
This is just for England not the whole UK. Just saying. In Scotland, there has been a move to have an autism commissioner as if that's going to benefit the lives of most autistic people. Don't know about Wales and Northern Ireland.
Earlier this week, the NYT also published this (to me, very moving) account of a nonverbal autistic man going to graduate school and publishing a novel: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/books/review/woody-brown-...
It's amazing how much we continue to learn about these conditions.
> Once diagnosed, many children receive Applied Behaviour Analysis (aba)
Shameless plug but to see ABA data better, I built a site with the Observable Framework[1] that analyzes sessions at: https://behavior.today
[1] https://github.com/observablehq/framework
nice, that's genius. great idea!
Thank you
Are the soaring diagnosis because the frequency of autism in the general population is increasing? Or just increasing education and diagnosis
It is primarily driven by the expansion of the diagnosis itself. DSM-3 Autism (1980) is quite different from DSM-5 Autism (today). We use the same word to describe two different things. Today's autism includes things that used to have totally different names. It also "allows" for a diagnosis much later in life. Autism used to be something very specific and discreet. From another perspective, the rate may not be soaring. That is, many more people in the 1980s and 1990s would be autistic by today's new standard.
This is almost not even up for debate anymore. At this point there is myriad evidence of it being the latter. For example, autism in women was all but ignored until recently, and is still under-diagnosed. Remember Grandma and her lifelong fixation on china saucers or whatever?
Yes, I do remember. That was a latent effect of the great depression mixed with grandma not having to work so that was her hobby. Pretty tired of having a hobby or specific domain knowledge being labeled as "lol autism".
Autism as a contemporary identity and autism as a DSM-V diagnosis seem to have diverged in the past few years.
It's because people have discovered that (1) motte and bailey fallacies [0] and equivocation of language (between, e.g. identity and diagnosis) are highly effective rhetorical tools; (2) merely identifying as something ontologically changes the metaphysical structure of reality [1] which confers certain societal benefits.
There is a matrix of is-diagnosed, is-not-diagnosed, identifies-as, does-not-identify-as, which is open to exploitation by those who "identify as" something they are not diagnosed with. Who gets fucked? The people who are diagnosed but do not identify as their diagnosis.
God help me once we start adding another dimension of people who have a condition, but are also not diagnosed and do not identify with it either...
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motte-and-bailey_fallacy
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47538165
More diagnosis for sure
Wasn't autism care also one of the avenues for fraud recently highlighted in Minnesota et al?
I have SchizoAffective Disorder, I also have a Major Mood disorder, and depression. When I was 5, they thought I had autism, but I did an IQ test and had the mental age of 12, and said autism didn't apply to me because I have a high IQ. They didn't know about high-functioning autism back then. So I think I was misdiagnosed. I think I am on the spectrum somewhere on the high end. I learn fast, but sometimes forget what I learned. I am 57 now.
There is a huge amount of overlap between the genes associated with schizophrenia and the genes associated with autism. This is part of what makes it tricky to diagnose yourself, because anyone who has the genes for schizophrenia is also going to have a lot of autism symptoms even if they don't have autism.
I’m 42 but British. I was a weird kid, but over in Blighty autism wasn’t something that was even considered back then - just “how much more do we need to cane him until he’s normal?!”.
It turns out, no amount. Now I’m just a weird adult with an ironclad distrust of all authority.
I am a bit older and i grew up in New Jersey, and it wasn't much different. My teacher once told me she was going to cut my finger off because i always counted with them . Punk rock saved my life .
[flagged]
Occam’s razor seems nice here. Higher demand for care due to rising number of legitimate diagnoses or widespread fraud?
... which of those do you expect Occam's razor points to?
...not... ...fraud?
Ok. Maybe. In areas I'm familiar with fraud is so widespread as to feel like the simpler answer. But I have no context for places with medical fraud so I bow to your experience here
Absent enforcement, proceeds from fraud are invested in more fraud. Given that fraud exists in this area, the shape of the growth curve suggests fraud as a plausible driver.
It's like a litmus test for whether you're susceptible to Facebook boomer ragebait.
Were the indictments also ragebait? https://www.justice.gov/usao-mn/pr/first-defendant-charged-a...
Are you really so petty as to call anything not fitting your world view "ragebait"?
An autist, properly managed, is a wonderful employee. Way better than "normies". Great for science and engineering. Strong motive for creating more autists.
“An autist”—get off of 4chan.
Autism is a varied condition and the stereotype that you are referring to does not apply to a very, very sizeable portion of people with autism.
I don't really understand the extremity of the "autism is a spectrum" thing. Yes, of course it is. Nothing in the parent comment is disrespectful of that or 4chan-y. I see this mysterious interaction a lot.
There is a popular narrative about autism. Damaged, deficient, etc.
Digression from this narrative is often met with hostility. That's popular, emotionally-charged narratives for you.
In your unpopular but assuredly more accurate narrative are all people diagnosed with autism misunderstood STEM high performers ?
If not all, what percentage?
That isn't my narrative.
Well then some significant proportion of "persons of autismness" are really good at that stuff.
They really know how to concentrate. It's next level, unknown by the normies. You want a guy who can give his full obsessive waking attention to a riddle for days or years, that's where you look. And that makes them valuable. Which brings us to my actual point.
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